9 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

AB Copenhagen vs Aarhus Fremad 1. Division prediction & result

Gladsaxe Stadium, Copenhagen
Referee: S. Aagerup
Full time2 – 0

Final score: AB Copenhagen 2-0 Aarhus Fremad.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% AB Copenhagen, 31% draw, 30% Aarhus Fremad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AB Copenhagen at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AB Copenhagen99%Draw1%Aarhus Fremad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Diop
21'
26'
M. Kirchheiner
C. Grening
42'
S. Ilsoe
52'
⚽M. Rasmussenassist: O. Mullings
60'
🔁M. Rasmussenout: N. Engell
65'
🔁C. Greningout: J. Fernandes
65'
68'
🔁K. Lundingout: Y. Abdullahi
68'
🔁M. Kirchheinerout: E. Egerton
🔁O. Mullingsout: T. Hageltorn
73'
75'
🔁S. Andreasenout: J. Beluli
🔁M. Stennerout: T. Sousa
75'
75'
🔁C. Nygaardout: J. Ostergaard
🔁M. Vesterholmout: A. Horup
87'
87'
🔁F. Grubeout: M. de Claville

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4AB Copenhagen146352115+621
5Aarhus Fremad144641214-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AB Copenhagen vs Aarhus Fremad

  • 24 May 2025Aarhus Fremad 1–2 AB Copenhagen2. Division
  • 19 April 2025AB Copenhagen 0–2 Aarhus Fremad2. Division
  • 12 April 2025Aarhus Fremad 3–1 AB Copenhagen2. Division
  • 23 August 2024AB Copenhagen 3–2 Aarhus Fremad2. Division
  • 7 June 2024AB Copenhagen 5–3 Aarhus Fremad2. Division

The result against the call

AB Copenhagen beat Aarhus Fremad 2–0. The model had made a win for AB Copenhagen its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Diop 21' for AB Copenhagen, M. Rasmussen 60' for AB Copenhagen.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AB Copenhagen a 20.3% chance to finish in the top four: 27.3% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.3%, 7 points higher than before the match.

For Aarhus Fremad the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.6% going in: 55.1% after a win, 41.3% after a draw, 32.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.8%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AB Copenhagen v Aarhus Fremad has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 37% / 32% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is AB Copenhagen's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. AB Copenhagen win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Aarhus Fremad win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.