Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Almere City FC 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Almere City FC, 24% draw, 19% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Almere City FC at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Wessel SpeelG
- 2M. WasinskiD
- 3J. JacobsD
- 4J. LawrenceD
- 5T. BijleveldD
- 8M. de HaanM
- 6E. CornelisseM
- 17E. PokuM
- 10J. JacobsM
- 11M. DorsM
- 9F. DruijfF
- 30J. van der WiltG
- 26Twan·Van Der ZeeuwD
- 20J. KalisvaartM
- 18Bas HuismanF
- 14M. HoedemakersM
- 7B. BurgeringF
- 24M. MateyoG
- 23J. Ritmeester van de KampM
- 16Tiziano vianelloD
- 1J. BorgmansG
- 22C. EssersD
- 4Predrag JevtićD
- 44O. RenfrumD
- 20Raf van de RietD
- 28R. BuifrahiM
- 6G. BeaumontM
- 8X. BlommeM
- 7H. DeenenM
- 9K. van VeenF
- 19Kevin FerreiraF
- 5R. BoonD
- 23Gideon ConstanciaF
- 27E. EksiF
- 35J. ElbersD
- 30N. FancitoG
- 31N. JanssenG
- 14N. MunstersM
- 10Lasse AbildgaardF
- 17L. NettenD
Form going into Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
Almere City FC
All competitions we cover
- W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026
FC Eindhoven
All competitions we cover
- D2-2De Graafschap3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almere City FC | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
- 21 February 2026FC Eindhoven 3–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2025Almere City FC 5–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 26 May 2023Almere City FC 3–1 FC EindhovenEredivisie
- 22 May 2023FC Eindhoven 1–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
- 10 February 2023FC Eindhoven 0–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 12 September 2022Almere City FC 1–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven
Almere City FC
GoalsAssists
- F. Druijf103
- M. Dors54
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almere City FC beat FC Eindhoven 3–0. The model had made a win for Almere City FC its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Emanuel Poku 12' for Almere City FC, Milan de Haan 29' for Almere City FC, James Lawrence 61' for Almere City FC. On expected goals it finished 2.79–0.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Almere City FC a 71.3% chance to finish in the top four: 74.9% after a win, 66.0% after a draw, 64.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
For FC Eindhoven the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.5% going in: 11.3% after a win, 14.4% after a draw, 16.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.6%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Almere City FC's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Almere City FC win57%▲ +6
- Draw24%▼ −2
- FC Eindhoven win19%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.