28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Aberdeen vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result

Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Aberdeen 0-1 Falkirk.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Aberdeen, 27% draw, 32% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aberdeen at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aberdeen0%Draw5%Falkirk95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Daniel Happe
17'
38'
🔁Leon McCannout: Scott Tanser
🔁Christopher Caddenout: Nicky Devlin
50'
🔁Lewis Smithout: Hicham Mahou
57'
🔁Afeez Aremu Olalekanout: Findlay Marshall
57'
65'
🔁Deniss Meļņiksout: Ben krauhaus
66'
🔁Jacob Murrellout: Ben Parkinson
🔁Ayoub Moulouaout: Toyosi Olusanya
66'
🔁Daniel Happeout: Jack Milne
66'
69'
Owen Eames
73'
⚽Ben krauhausassist: Ryan Strain
Findlay Marshall
73'
79'
🔁Ethan Rossout: Calvin Fodrey
79'
🔁Owen Eamesout: Conor McLeod
80'
Conor McLeod
83'
Ben krauhaus
89'
Brad Spencer

Match stats — Aberdeen vs Falkirk

45%Possession55%
15Shots13
5On target4
5Corners4
1.72xG1.08

Goals against chances

Aberdeen0 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Falkirk1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aberdeen 4-2-3-1
  • 27M. MüllerG
  • 28C. CaddenD
  • 21G. MolloyD
  • 26D. HappeD
  • 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
  • 8B. LyonsM
  • 32A. AremuM
  • 11Lewis SmithM
  • 15K. NisbetM
  • 17S. ArmstrongM
  • 9A. MoulouaF
Substitutes
  • 10A. BriedlM
  • 2N. DevlinD
  • 30D. KleinG
  • 14H. MahouM
  • 40F. MarshallM
  • 22J. MilneD
  • 31M. NteloF
  • 20T. OlusanyaF
  • 4K. TobersD
Coach: S. Robinson
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 21D. MeļņiksM
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
  • 42Owen EamesM
  • 24J. MurrellF
Substitutes
  • 17S. TanserD
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 27C. McLeodM
  • 10C. SibbaldM
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 14F. YeatsM
Coach: J. McGlynn

Form going into Aberdeen vs Falkirk

Aberdeen

Premiership

  • L2-3away to Dundee United24 October 2026
  • W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
  • L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026

Falkirk

Premiership

  • W3-0Kilmarnock24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Aberdeen123271218-611
3Falkirk136342014+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Falkirk

  • 14 March 2026Aberdeen 1–1 FalkirkPremiership
  • 3 January 2026Falkirk 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 31 August 2025Aberdeen 0–1 FalkirkPremiership

Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Falkirk

Aberdeen

GoalsAssists

  • K. Nisbet43

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

  • J. Murrell70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Falkirk won 1–0 at Aberdeen. The model had leaned towards a win for Aberdeen at 41% and given a win for Falkirk 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ben krauhaus 73' for Falkirk. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.08.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aberdeen a 34.9% chance to finish in the top six: 41.1% after a win, 32.4% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 7 points lower than before the match.

For Falkirk the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 51.3% going in: 60.8% after a win, 50.7% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.8%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aberdeen v Falkirk has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Falkirk's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Aberdeen win41%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Falkirk win32%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.