28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Celtic vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result

Celtic Park, Glasgow
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Celtic 2-2 Dundee United.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Celtic, 17% draw, 10% Dundee United — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celtic at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celtic8%Draw90%Dundee United2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Camilo Duranassist: Kasper Hogh
18'
28'
⚽Zachary Sapsfordassist: Lyall Cameron
31'
⚽Neil Farrugia
Colby Donovan
33'
Kasper Hogh
39'
🔁Kasper Hoghout: Jota
45'
🔁Callum Osmandout: Haissem Hassan
45'
53'
🔁Neil Farrugiaout: Daniel Bennie
62'
🔁Zachary Sapsfordout: Lachlan Rose
⚽Liam Scalesassist: Jota
65'
71'
Michael Forbes
73'
🔁Zidane Iqbalout: Panutche Camara
73'
🔁Jesse Randallout: Idjessi Metsoko
73'
🔁Lyall Cameronout: abdoulaye yoro
🔁Benjamin Nygrenout: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
81'
🔁Kieran Tierneyout: Landon Emenalo
81'
83'
Jack Walton
🔁Camilo Duranout: Shumaira Mheuka
84'

Match stats — Celtic vs Dundee United

65%Possession35%
29Shots11
8On target5
13Corners5
2.02xG0.84

Goals against chances

Celtic2 from 2.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dundee United2 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 11C. DuránM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 19C. OsmandM
  • 9K. HøghF
Substitutes
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 23H. HassanF
  • 18O. SørensenM
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 7JotaF
  • 29Shumaira MheukaF
  • 12L. EmenaloD
Coach: M. O'Neill
Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 16L. CameronM
  • 10D. TaitM
  • 14Zidane IqbalM
  • 21J. RandallF
  • 9Z. SapsfordF
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
Substitutes
  • 77D. BennieF
  • 15L. RoseF
  • 93I. MetsokoF
  • 8Panutche CamaráM
  • 26Abdoulaye YoroM
  • 6R. GrahamD
  • 22D. NaamoD
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 30J. AmissahG
Coach: J. Goodwin

Form going into Celtic vs Dundee United

Celtic

Premiership

  • W2-1away to Hibernian25 October 2026
  • W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026

Dundee United

Premiership

  • W3-2Aberdeen24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to St Johnstone17 October 2026
  • W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Celtic1310122810+1831
6Dundee United124531717017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celtic vs Dundee United

  • 15 August 2026Dundee United 0–4 CelticLeague Cup
  • 22 March 2026Dundee United 2–0 CelticPremiership
  • 10 January 2026Celtic 4–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 17 December 2025Dundee United 2–1 CelticPremiership
  • 26 April 2025Dundee United 0–5 CelticPremiership
  • 15 February 2025Celtic 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership

Leading scorers: Celtic and Dundee United

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán76
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Dundee United

GoalsAssists

  • J. Randall33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celtic and Dundee United drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Celtic at 73% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Camilo Duran 18' for Celtic, Zachary Sapsford 28' for Dundee United, Neil Farrugia 31' for Dundee United, Liam Scales 65' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 2.02–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celtic a 79.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 80.8% after a win, 76.0% after a draw, 71.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 76.0%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

For Dundee United the question was the chance to finish in the top six: 64.0% after a win, 59.7% after a draw, 53.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 59.7%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Celtic v Dundee United has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 70% / 18% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 73% / 17% / 10%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Celtic win73%▲ +3
  2. Draw17%▼ −1
  3. Dundee United win10%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.