Dundee vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Dundee 3-1 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Dundee, 23% draw, 23% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dundee at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. GoodmanG
- 7D. WrightD
- 26J. WrightD
- 4R. AstleyD
- 12I. SamuelsD
- 27J. BevanM
- 28C. JonesM
- 48E. HamiltonM
- 14A. ForrestM
- 11A. HayF
- 21B. FinkF
- 2B. HallidayD
- 17Ž. BeširM
- 77Alfie HarrisonM
- 3I. OdutayoD
- 45Cole PerrieD
- 18C. ReillyF
- 30H. SharpG
- 19J. WestleyF
- 6M. AkinmboniD
- 58N. MantlG
- 2J. BrandonD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 6R. DeasD
- 18T. LoweryM
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenM
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 9J. HugillF
- 11G. KiltieF
- 29D. DanielsF
- 32R. EllisD
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 23Roshaun MathurinM
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 19J. MeierD
- 8E. RingM
- 12C. FerrieG
- 27I. OwenF
Form going into Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Dundee
Premiership
- L1-2away to St Mirren24 October 2026
- D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
Kilmarnock
Premiership
- L0-3away to Falkirk24 October 2026
- W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
- 12 May 2026Kilmarnock 3–1 DundeePremiership
- 11 April 2026Kilmarnock 2–2 DundeePremiership
- 17 January 2026Kilmarnock 1–2 DundeeFA Cup
- 30 December 2025Dundee 2–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 23 August 2025Kilmarnock 0–0 DundeePremiership
- 10 May 2025Kilmarnock 3–2 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee and Kilmarnock
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- J. Westley40
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee beat Kilmarnock 3–1. The model had made a win for Dundee its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Joseph Bevan 32' for Dundee, Joe Hugill (penalty) 75' for Kilmarnock, Ashley Hay 83' for Dundee, Ashley Hay 90+4' for Dundee. On expected goals it finished 2.29–2.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dundee a 62.7% chance to finish in the top six: 67.1% after a win, 58.6% after a draw, 55.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.1%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
For Kilmarnock the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 65.0% going in: 54.4% after a win, 64.3% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.3%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.