28 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers Premiership prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-2 Rangers.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Heart of Midlothian, 25% draw, 39% Rangers — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rangers at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heart of Midlothian5%Draw90%Rangers5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Nicolas Raskin
16'
⚽Kevin Kelsyassist: Ryan Naderi
🔁Rogers Matoout: Stephen Kingsley
33'
44'
Emmanuel Fernandez
⚽Claudio Rafael Soares Bragaassist: Malachi Walcott
48'
54'
🔁Djeidi Gassamaout: Badredine Bouanani
⚽Calvin Miller
57'
61'
James Penrice
63'
🔁James Penriceout: Tuur Rommens
Wouter Vrancken
66'
70'
Badredine Bouanani
Jordi Altena
72'
🔁Calvin Millerout: James wilson
78'
🔁Claudio Rafael Soares Bragaout: Jerome Williams
78'
84'
🔁Min-su Kimout: Findlay Curtis
84'
🔁Dan Neilout: Tochi Chukwuani
85'
🔁Ryan Naderiout: Bojan Miovski
Sabah Kerjota
87'
89'
⚽Olwethu Makhanyaassist: Badredine Bouanani
🔁Josh Mcpakeout: Severin Sabri Guendouz
90+1'

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers

47%Possession53%
17Shots14
6On target6
4Corners4
1.75xG2.26

Goals against chances

Heart of Midlothian2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rangers2 from 2.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 74R. MatoD
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 22T. MagnússonM
  • 29S. KerjotaM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 10Cláudio BragaF
Substitutes
  • 31Y. DhandaF
  • 3S. KingsleyD
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 19S. GuendouzF
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 9J. WilliamsF
  • 21J. WilsonF
  • 33F. PollockM
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
Coach: W. Vrancken
Rangers 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. PandurG
  • 21D. SterlingD
  • 37E. FernandezD
  • 24O. MakhanyaD
  • 29J. PenriceD
  • 6D. NeilM
  • 43N. RaskinM
  • 10Minsu KimM
  • 20R. NaderiM
  • 23D. GassamaM
  • 19K. KelsyF
Substitutes
  • 22V. DragojevićM
  • 4B. GodfreyD
  • 31L. KellyG
  • 28B. MiovskiF
  • 18K. NedeljkovićD
  • 25T. RommensD
  • 52Findlay CurtisF
  • 26B. BouananiF
  • 42T. ChukwuaniM
Coach: D. McInnes

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers

Heart of Midlothian

Premiership

  • W2-0away to Motherwell25 October 2026
  • L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
  • W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026

Rangers

Premiership

  • W4-0St Johnstone24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Dundee17 October 2026
  • W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Heart of Midlothian126242622+420
2Rangers12831219+1227

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers

  • 4 May 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–1 RangersPremiership
  • 15 February 2026Rangers 4–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 21 December 2025Heart of Midlothian 2–1 RangersPremiership
  • 13 September 2025Rangers 0–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 16 February 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–3 RangersPremiership
  • 10 November 2024Rangers 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Rangers

Heart of Midlothian

GoalsAssists

  • Cláudio Braga62
  • C. Miller51
  • J. McPake36

Rangers

GoalsAssists

  • R. Naderi63
  • K. Kelsy40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heart of Midlothian and Rangers drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rangers at 39% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Kelsy 16' for Rangers, Claudio Rafael Soares Braga 48' for Heart of Midlothian, Calvin Miller 57' for Heart of Midlothian, Olwethu Makhanya 89' for Rangers. On expected goals it finished 1.75–2.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rangers a 18.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 22.2% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.7%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Heart of Midlothian v Rangers has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 42% / 25% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 25% / 39%: the biggest move is Heart of Midlothian's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Heart of Midlothian win36%▼ −6
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Rangers win39%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.