28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

St Johnstone vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result

McDiarmid Park, Perth
Full time2 – 2

Final score: St Johnstone 2-2 Motherwell.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% St Johnstone, 28% draw, 33% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St Johnstone at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Johnstone0%Draw4%Motherwell96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Taylor Steven
19'
34'
⚽Ibrahim Saidassist: Emmanuel Longelo
45'
🔁Dylan Levittout: Jardell Kanga
45'
🔁Jordan McGheeout: Lukas Fadinger
Enes Alic
51'
51'
Ibrahim Said
54'
⚽Tawanda Maswanhiseassist: Jake Max Girdwood-Reich
62'
🔁Ibrahim Saidout: Regan Charles-Cook
🔁Jamie Gullanout: Josh Campbell
66'
🔁Ruari Patonout: Danny schmidt
66'
🔁Jason Holtout: Joel Cotterill
67'
71'
Tom Sparrow
🔁Taylor Stevenout: Logan Chalmers
80'
80'
🔁Tawanda Maswanhiseout: Jamie·Knight Lebel
88'
🔁Jake Max Girdwood-Reichout: Stephen O'Donnell
⚽Josh Campbellassist: Logan Chalmers
90+3'

Match stats — St Johnstone vs Motherwell

56%Possession44%
15Shots17
3On target9
2Corners8
1.48xG1.53

Goals against chances

St Johnstone2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Motherwell2 from 1.53 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Johnstone 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 26M. ToddD
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 2E. AlıçD
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 7T. StevenM
  • 99R. PatonM
  • 10J. GullanM
  • 9J. FowlerF
Substitutes
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 25M. TaitM
  • 32J. CampbellM
  • 4M. BoyesD
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 30J. CotterillM
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 6B. MikulićD
  • 22D. SchmidtF
Coach: S. Valakari
Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45M. EmmanuelD
  • 6J. McGheeM
  • 63D. LevittM
  • 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
  • 19I. SaidM
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Substitutes
  • 21M. ConnellyG
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 13J. KangaM
  • 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 15E. Björgólfs­sonF
  • 27M. BoothM
  • 77W. VogtF
Coach: Alfred Johansson

Form going into St Johnstone vs Motherwell

St Johnstone

Premiership

  • L0-4away to Rangers24 October 2026
  • D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026

Motherwell

Premiership

  • L0-2Heart of Midlothian25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7St Johnstone134541720-317
9Motherwell133461521-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Motherwell

  • 16 August 2025St Johnstone 0–1 MotherwellLeague Cup
  • 26 April 2025Motherwell 3–2 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 25 January 2025St Johnstone 2–1 MotherwellPremiership
  • 18 January 2025St Johnstone 1–0 MotherwellFA Cup
  • 9 November 2024Motherwell 2–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 31 August 2024St Johnstone 1–2 MotherwellPremiership

Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Motherwell

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fowler61

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Johnstone and Motherwell drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for St Johnstone at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Taylor Steven 19' for St Johnstone, Ibrahim Said 34' for Motherwell, Tawanda Maswanhise 54' for Motherwell, Josh Campbell 90+3' for St Johnstone. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Johnstone these chances to finish in the bottom three: 25.5% after a win, 33.8% after a draw, 40.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 33.8%.

For Motherwell the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 28.2% going in: 36.0% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.8%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on St Johnstone v Motherwell has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is St Johnstone's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. St Johnstone win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Motherwell win33%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.