Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Aberdeen 0-0 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 31% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Line-ups
- 27M. MüllerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 23L. MayoD
- 26D. HappeD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 32A. AremuM
- 11L. SmithM
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 7Tony YoganeM
- 31M. NteloF
- 15K. NisbetF
- 10A. BriedlM
- 30D. KleinG
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 40F. MarshallM
- 22J. MilneD
- 21G. MolloyD
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 20T. OlusanyaF
- 18A. PalaversaM
- 1M. StryjekG
- 2J. BrandonD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 8E. RingM
- 29D. DanielsF
- 9J. HugillF
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 19J. MeierD
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 49B. RiceM
- 12C. FerrieG
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 27I. OwenF
Form going into Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
Kilmarnock
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aberdeen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
- 5 September 2026Aberdeen 0–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 25 April 2026Aberdeen 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 31 January 2026Kilmarnock 3–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 14 December 2025Aberdeen 2–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 29 October 2025Kilmarnock 0–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 22 February 2025Aberdeen 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
- K. Nisbet2 goals2 assists
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.