5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Dundee United vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result

Tannadice Park, Dundee
Full time1 1

Final score: Dundee United 1-1 Falkirk.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Dundee United, 30% draw, 30% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dundee United at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundee United0%Draw4%Falkirk96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Jacob Murrellassist: Ryan Strain
🔁Mehdi Merghemout: Jesse Randall
19'
Dylan Tait
42'
Zachary Sapsford
56'
🔁Daniel Bennieout: Lachlan Rose
57'
🔁Panutche Camaraout: Zidane Iqbal
57'
57'
🔁Liam Hendersonout: Deniss Meļņiks
58'
🔁Ethan Rossout: Aodhan Doherty
Lachlan Rose
64'
65'
🔁Jacob Murrellout: Ben Parkinson
65'
🔁Ben krauhausout: Joseph Charles Gardner
🔁Zachary Sapsfordout: Neil Farrugia
69'
🔁Lyall Cameronout: abdoulaye yoro
69'
77'
🔁Owen Eamesout: Calvin Fodrey
84'
Brad Spencer
88'
Ben Parkinson
Michael Forbesassist: abdoulaye yoro
90+3'

Match stats — Dundee United vs Falkirk

62%Possession38%
27Shots12
9On target4
14Corners5

Line-ups

Dundee United 4-3-3
  • 1J. WaltonG
  • 23J. RawlinsD
  • 3B. EsselinkD
  • 18M. ForbesD
  • 19K. CiubotaruD
  • 8Panutche CamaráM
  • 10D. TaitM
  • 16L. CameronM
  • 7M. MerghemF
  • 9Z. SapsfordF
  • 77D. BennieF
Substitutes
  • 14Zidane IqbalM
  • 93I. MetsokoF
  • 15L. RoseF
  • 21J. RandallF
  • 22D. NaamoD
  • 30J. AmissahG
  • 20N. FarrugiaF
  • 4I. IovuD
  • 26Abdoulaye YoroM
Coach: J. Goodwin
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 42Owen EamesM
  • 24J. MurrellF
Substitutes
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 21D. MeļņiksM
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 17S. TanserD
  • 47A. DohertyF
  • 18Joseph Charles GardnerF
Coach: J. McGlynn

Form going into Dundee United vs Falkirk

Dundee United

  • L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
  • L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026

Falkirk

  • L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Dundee United6123611-55
10Falkirk612358-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Falkirk

  • 5 September 2026Dundee United 1–1 FalkirkPremiership
  • 6 March 2026Falkirk 2–1 Dundee UnitedFA Cup
  • 14 February 2026Falkirk 2–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 22 November 2025Dundee United 0–3 FalkirkPremiership
  • 3 August 2025Falkirk 2–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
  • 13 July 2024Falkirk 2–0 Dundee UnitedLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Dundee United and Falkirk

Dundee United

  • J. Randall1 goals1 assists

Falkirk

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.