30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

St Mirren vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result

The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
Full time3 – 3

Final score: St Mirren 3-3 Motherwell.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% St Mirren, 29% draw, 25% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St Mirren at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Mirren97%Draw3%Motherwell0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽T. Maswanhiseassist: A. Lowry
13'
•Emmanuel Longelo
15'
⚽Tawanda Maswanhise (pen)
24'
⚽R. Charles-Cook
⚽P. Nsioassist: S. Ramos
39'
⚽D. Johnassist: S. Ramos
44'
⚽S. Ramosassist: A. Gogic
45'
46'
🔁T. Sparrowout: S. O'Donnell
47'
Stephen O'Donnell
52'
Martin Moormann
58'
🔁T. Maswanhiseout: J. Kanga
58'
🔁R. Charles-Cookout: S. Palmer-Houlden
🔁C. Ramsayout: J. Richardson
61'
🔁C. R. Mochrieout: F. Taylor
61'
🔁N. Agrafiotisout: E. Sule
61'
🔁S. Ramosout: L. Thomas
71'
71'
🔁J. Hodgeout: D. Williams
73'
🔁I. Saidout: E. Bjorgolfsson
🔁I. Kabiaout: J. Young
75'
Ryan Carr
85'
Jake Young
89'
90'
⚽J. Kanga

Match stats — St Mirren vs Motherwell

45%Possession55%
23Shots22
9On target7
7Corners7
2.27xG2.17

Goals against chances

St Mirren3 from 2.27 xGmore than the chances were worth
Motherwell3 from 2.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Mirren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ChapmanG
  • 47C. RamsayD
  • 13A. GogicD
  • 53H. FieldsonD
  • 3D. JohnD
  • 8R. CarrM
  • 48P. NsioM
  • 10S. RamosM
  • 23C. R. MochrieM
  • 19I. KabiaM
  • 25N. AgrafiotisF
Substitutes
  • 31R. MullenG
  • 2J. RichardsonD
  • 5R. KingD
  • 6L. JacksonD
  • 30F. TaylorM
  • 37C. McEvoyM
  • 20J. YoungF
  • 9E. SuleF
  • 16L. ThomasM
Coach: Craig McLeish
Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 4J. Knight-LebelD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45E. LongeloD
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 18T. MaswanhiseM
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 19I. SaidM
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
Substitutes
  • 21Matty ConnellyG
  • 20D. WilliamsD
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 25O. WhyteM
  • 13J. KangaM
  • 24L. RossM
  • 77W. VogtF
  • 15E. BjorgolfssonF
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Coach: Alfred Johansson

Form going into St Mirren vs Motherwell

St Mirren

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026

Motherwell

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg27 August 2026
  • L1-3SC Freiburg20 August 2026
  • W2-0HJK Helsinki13 August 2026
  • D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
  • D1-1away to HJK Helsinki6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8St Mirren134271222-1014
9Motherwell133461521-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Motherwell

  • 21 February 2026St Mirren 0–5 MotherwellPremiership
  • 3 January 2026Motherwell 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
  • 1 November 2025Motherwell 1–4 St MirrenLeague Cup
  • 9 August 2025St Mirren 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 15 March 2025Motherwell 2–2 St MirrenPremiership

Leading scorers: St Mirren and Motherwell

St Mirren

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Mirren and Motherwell drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for St Mirren at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: T. Maswanhise 2' for Motherwell, R. Charles-Cook 24' for Motherwell, P. Nsio 39' for St Mirren, D. John 44' for St Mirren, S. Ramos 45' for St Mirren, J. Kanga 90' for Motherwell. On expected goals it finished 2.27–2.17.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.