30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

St Mirren vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result

The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
Full time3 – 3

Final score: St Mirren 3-3 Motherwell.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% St Mirren, 29% draw, 25% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St Mirren at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Mirren97%Draw3%Motherwell0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽T. Maswanhiseassist: A. Lowry
13'
•Emmanuel Longelo
15'
⚽Tawanda Maswanhise (pen)
24'
⚽R. Charles-Cook
⚽P. Nsioassist: S. Ramos
39'
⚽D. Johnassist: S. Ramos
44'
⚽S. Ramosassist: A. Gogic
45'
46'
🔁T. Sparrowout: S. O'Donnell
47'
Stephen O'Donnell
52'
Martin Moormann
58'
🔁T. Maswanhiseout: J. Kanga
58'
🔁R. Charles-Cookout: S. Palmer-Houlden
🔁C. Ramsayout: J. Richardson
61'
🔁C. R. Mochrieout: F. Taylor
61'
🔁N. Agrafiotisout: E. Sule
61'
🔁S. Ramosout: L. Thomas
71'
71'
🔁J. Hodgeout: D. Williams
73'
🔁I. Saidout: E. Bjorgolfsson
🔁I. Kabiaout: J. Young
75'
Ryan Carr
85'
Jake Young
89'
90'
⚽J. Kanga

Match stats — St Mirren vs Motherwell

45%Possession55%
23Shots22
9On target7
7Corners7
2.27xG2.17

Goals against chances

St Mirren3 from 2.27 xGmore than the chances were worth
Motherwell3 from 2.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Mirren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ChapmanG
  • 47C. RamsayD
  • 13A. GogicD
  • 53H. FieldsonD
  • 3D. JohnD
  • 8R. CarrM
  • 48P. NsioM
  • 10S. RamosM
  • 23C. R. MochrieM
  • 19I. KabiaM
  • 25N. AgrafiotisF
Substitutes
  • 31R. MullenG
  • 2J. RichardsonD
  • 5R. KingD
  • 6L. JacksonD
  • 30F. TaylorM
  • 37C. McEvoyM
  • 20J. YoungF
  • 9E. SuleF
  • 16L. ThomasM
Coach: Craig McLeish
Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 4J. Knight-LebelD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45E. LongeloD
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 18T. MaswanhiseM
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 19I. SaidM
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
Substitutes
  • 21Matty ConnellyG
  • 20D. WilliamsD
  • 2S. O'DonnellD
  • 25O. WhyteM
  • 13J. KangaM
  • 24L. RossM
  • 77W. VogtF
  • 15E. BjorgolfssonF
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Coach: Alfred Johansson

Form going into St Mirren vs Motherwell

St Mirren

  • W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026

Motherwell

  • D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4St Mirren631286+210
5Motherwell622289-18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Motherwell

  • 30 August 2026St Mirren 3–3 MotherwellPremiership
  • 21 February 2026St Mirren 0–5 MotherwellPremiership
  • 3 January 2026Motherwell 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
  • 1 November 2025Motherwell 1–4 St MirrenLeague Cup
  • 9 August 2025St Mirren 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 15 March 2025Motherwell 2–2 St MirrenPremiership

Leading scorers: St Mirren and Motherwell

St Mirren

  • K. Phillips3 goals
  • Samu1 goals2 assists

Motherwell

  • Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
  • A. Lowry1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.