13 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol Premier League prediction & result

Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Abu Qair Semad 1-2 Asyut Petrol.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Abu Qair Semad, 36% draw, 32% Asyut Petrol — fair odds of 3.13, 2.78 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

the draw at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Abu Qair Semad0%Draw1%Asyut Petrol99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Omar Ibrahim
43'
🔁Omar Ibrahimout: Mohamed Ashraf
56'
🔁Mostafa Abdelrehimout: Quaison Kofi Gideon
56'
🔁Ahmed Khaledout: Mahmoud Abou-Gouda
64'
🔁Favour Akemout: Mohamed Camara
64'
66'
⚽Mohamed Eidassist: Abdelrahman Medhat
66'
🔁Abdel Rahman Kamal El Khamisiout: Mostafa Ahmed Abdel Hamid
🔁Mohamed Alaaout: Ayman Abdelhamid El Gazar
70'
74'
🔁Mohamed Eidout: Fathy Gamal
74'
🔁Ibrahim Abassout: Abou Bakr Fawzi
78'
🔁Mahmoud Alaaout: Ahmed Magdy
78'
🔁Abdel Rahman Mohamed Eissaout: Khaled Abdel Aal
Quaison Kofi Gideon
81'
83'
⚽Fathy Gamal
⚽Ali Husseinassist: Ahmed Dahesh
90+4'

Match stats — Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol

62%Possession38%
14Shots9
3On target4
6Corners7
1.06xG0.78

Goals against chances

Abu Qair Semad1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth
Asyut Petrol2 from 0.78 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Abu Qair Semad 4-4-2
  • 25Mohamed Zakaria ShikaG
  • 6M. AlaaD
  • 20Ahmed AwadD
  • 4M. DabashD
  • 27Ahmed DaheshD
  • 11Mostafa RahimM
  • 15O. IbrahimM
  • 14R. MiladM
  • 23F. AkemM
  • 29Ali HusseinF
  • 22Ahmed KhaledF
Substitutes
  • 13Glid OtangaM
  • 8E. HamdiM
  • 1M. GeneshG
  • 9Mahmoud Abou GoudaF
  • 7Mohamed AshrafM
  • 38Mohamed CamaraF
  • 24A. El GazarD
  • 30Y. HamdiM
  • 3Gaber KamelD
Coach: Magdy Abdelaaty
Asyut Petrol 3-5-2
  • 25A. AhmedG
  • 5Mahmoud AlaaD
  • 20A. ShokryD
  • 24Mahmoud AlaaD
  • 30Abdelrahman MedhatM
  • 18Mohamed HeshaM
  • 19I. AbbasM
  • 26A. R. Al KhamisiM
  • 7Ahmed YounesM
  • 9M. EidF
  • 35C. C. BodneF
Substitutes
  • 34K. Abdel AalD
  • 11Mostafa SadafaF
  • 6Ahmed MagdyD
  • 21F. Abu BakrM
  • 23Ahmed GamalG
  • 8Fathy GamalF
  • 13Ismail AshrafF
  • 32Karim KamelM
  • 38Joshua EgagyF
Coach: Ahmed Abdelmaksoud

Form going into Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol

Abu Qair Semad

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026

Asyut Petrol

Premier League

  • L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Abu Qair Semad8116312-94
18Asyut Petrol813448-46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol

  • 15 January 2026Abu Qair Semad 1–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League
  • 30 August 2025Asyut Petrol 0–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
  • 30 April 2025Asyut Petrol 1–2 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
  • 23 December 2024Abu Qair Semad 0–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League
  • 27 February 2024Asyut Petrol 1–1 Abu Qair SemadSecond League

The result against the call

Asyut Petrol won 2–1 at Abu Qair Semad. The model had leaned towards a draw at 36% and given a win for Asyut Petrol 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mohamed Eid 66' for Asyut Petrol, Fathy Gamal 83' for Asyut Petrol, Ali Hussein 90+4' for Abu Qair Semad. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Abu Qair Semad a 52.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.4% after a win, 53.4% after a draw, 63.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.9%, 11.3 points higher than before the match.

For Asyut Petrol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 59.4% going in: 47.2% after a win, 61.4% after a draw, 69.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.2%, 12.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.