13 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish Premier League prediction & result

Stadium National Bank of Egypt, Cairo
Full time3 – 0

Final score: National Bank of Egypt 3-0 El Geish.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% National Bank of Egypt, 32% draw, 31% El Geish — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

National Bank of Egypt at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

National Bank of Egypt99%Draw1%El Geish0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Anderson Santos
5'
11'
🔁Amro Tarekout: Khaled Sotohi
45+1'
Ahmed Tarek
45'
🔁Ayman Amir Abdelazizout: Mostafa Khawaga
🔁Anderson Santosout: Mostafa Shalaby
61'
64'
⚽Mohamed Atef (pen)
🔁Mohamed Naserout: Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama
68'
🔁Karim Hamedout: Mohamed Ashraf Ben Sharqi
68'
⚽Salah Abd Etouab Bouchamaassist: Mostafa Shalaby
73'
76'
🔁Walid Benbellaout: I. Ouro-Agoro
76'
🔁Ahmed Abdel Rahman Zolaout: Komlavi Komi
76'
🔁Karim Tarekout: Khaled Abo Ziada
🔁Ahmed Yasser Rayanout: Yaw Annor
83'
🔁Mohamed Nasrout: Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi
84'
89'
Khaled Sotohi
90+1'
Amro Tarek
⚽Khaled Sayed Abdelshafiassist: Hisham Saleh
90+5'

Match stats — National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish

39%Possession61%
10Shots21
3On target3
3Corners10
0.49xG1.57

Goals against chances

National Bank of Egypt3 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
El Geish0 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

National Bank of Egypt 4-1-4-1
  • 27Abdel Aziz El BaloutiG
  • 2Mohamed NasrD
  • 20Amir MedhatD
  • 6Mahmoud El GazzarD
  • 12Ahmed MetebD
  • 17Mohamed NaserM
  • 7Hisham SalehM
  • 14Ali HamdyM
  • 22Anderson CearáM
  • 18K. HamedM
  • 29Ahmed Yasser RayanF
Substitutes
  • 30Y. AnnorF
  • 1Ahmed Sobhi AfifiG
  • 13Khaled ShefoD
  • 10Sayed Abdallah SikaF
  • 25Mohamed AshrafM
  • 19S. BouchamaM
  • 24Mostafa AdelM
  • 70Mohamed RedaF
  • 11Mostafa ShalabyM
Coach: Ayman Al Ramadi
El Geish 4-4-2
  • 1Omar RadwanG
  • 8Ahmed Abdel Rahman ZolaD
  • 24Z. MohamedD
  • 4Mohamed FathallahD
  • 3Amro TarekD
  • 30Mohamed AtefM
  • 25Ahmed TarekM
  • 17Walid BenbellaM
  • 11Karim TarekM
  • 12Islam MoharebF
  • 33Ayman Amir AbdelazizF
Substitutes
  • 6Khaled StouhiD
  • 21Khaled Abo ZiadaF
  • 10Mohamed HanyF
  • 18Emad El SayedG
  • 22Mostafa KhawagaM
  • 13Komlavi KomiF
  • 2Momen MahmoudD
  • 7Ragab OmranM
  • 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
Coach: Gomaa Mashhour

Form going into National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish

National Bank of Egypt

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
  • W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026

El Geish

Premier League

  • L0-1Smouha SC14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8National Bank of Egypt832399011
14El Geish8224612-68

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish

  • 9 April 2026El Geish 1–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
  • 29 August 2025National Bank of Egypt 0–0 El GeishPremier League
  • 27 February 2025El Geish 2–2 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
  • 17 April 2024National Bank of Egypt 0–1 El GeishPremier League
  • 18 September 2023El Geish 2–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League

Leading scorers: National Bank of Egypt and El Geish

National Bank of Egypt

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

El Geish

GoalsAssists

  • Islam Mohareb21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

National Bank of Egypt beat El Geish 3–0. The model had made a win for National Bank of Egypt its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Anderson Santos 5' for National Bank of Egypt, Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama 73' for National Bank of Egypt, Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi 90+5' for National Bank of Egypt. Sent off: Khaled Sotohi (El Geish) 89'. On expected goals it finished 0.49–1.57.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave National Bank of Egypt a 14.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.4% after a win, 14.4% after a draw, 20.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For El Geish the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.8% going in: 3.8% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.9%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.