13 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC Premier League prediction & result

Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Al Ittihad Alexandria 2-1 El Gouna FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 34% draw, 29% El Gouna FC — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Ittihad Alexandria at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Mohamed Mido Mostafa (OG)
⚽Hossam Hassanassist: Joseph Arumala
10'
41'
Tolulope Samuel Ojo
45'
🔁Ziad El Shayatout: Omar El Gazar
⚽Mohamed Toni
60'
61'
Tolulope Samuel Ojo
🔁Mohamed Toniout: Mahmoud Emad
66'
66'
🔁Ahmed Gamalout: Alaa Shaaban
66'
🔁Abdel Gawad Taalabout: Marwan Mohsen
🔁Joseph Arumalaout: Ahmed Eid Nagy
66'
71'
🔁Alpha Turayout: marwan essam
🔁Hossam Hassanout: John Okoye Ebuka
75'
🔁Nour Alaaout: Youssry Wahid
80'
🔁Mohamed Fakhriout: Ahmed Hamdi
80'
83'
🔁Michael Egbembaout: Mohamed Reda

Match stats — Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC

58%Possession42%
18Shots6
4On target1
8Corners3
2.01xG0.4

Goals against chances

Al Ittihad Alexandria2 from 2.01 xGabout what the chances were worth
El Gouna FC1 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Ittihad Alexandria 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sobhi SolimanG
  • 24Momen AwadD
  • 7Mohamed Mostafa MidoD
  • 5Mostafa IbrahimD
  • 30K. MosaadD
  • 23I. SaviourM
  • 14Mohamed FakhryM
  • 80Joseph ArumalaM
  • 8Mohamed ToniM
  • 22Nour AlaaM
  • 10Hossam HassanF
Substitutes
  • 4Islam AbdallahD
  • 31Ali El GabryG
  • 25Mahmoud EmadM
  • 21Ahmed HamdiM
  • 77A. NagyM
  • 18J. EbukaF
  • 44K. SemakulaD
  • 11Youssry WahidF
  • 20Mazen OsamaD
Coach: Hamza El Gamal
El Gouna FC 4-2-3-1
  • 16Eslam RishaG
  • 2Abdel Gawad TaalabD
  • 5Saber El ShimiD
  • 28M. MetaweaD
  • 44Alpha TurayD
  • 14Nour El SayedM
  • 42M. EgbembaM
  • 20Ahmed BelyaM
  • 74Ziad El ShayatM
  • 70Ahmed GamalM
  • 29T. OjoF
Substitutes
  • 30Alaa ShaabanF
  • 90W. Parfait TeukeuM
  • 22Mohamed RedaM
  • 9Marwan MohsenF
  • 34M. EssamD
  • 24Ali El ZahdiF
  • 13Omar El GazarD
  • 4Islam Abou SlemmaM
  • 99Badreldin WalidG
Coach: Bebo

Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC

Al Ittihad Alexandria

Premier League

  • W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
  • W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026

El Gouna FC

Premier League

  • L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Al Ittihad Alexandria842296+314
20El Gouna FC8035511-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC

  • 4 April 2026El Gouna FC 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 23 November 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–2 El Gouna FCPremier League
  • 11 March 2025El Gouna FC 2–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 17 February 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
  • 27 April 2024El Gouna FC 2–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League

Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and El Gouna FC

Al Ittihad Alexandria

GoalsAssists

  • Hossam Hassan40

El Gouna FC

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Ittihad Alexandria beat El Gouna FC 2–1. The model had made a win for Al Ittihad Alexandria its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mohamed Mido Mostafa (own goal) 8' for El Gouna FC, Hossam Hassan 10' for Al Ittihad Alexandria, Mohamed Toni 60' for Al Ittihad Alexandria. Sent off: Tolulope Samuel Ojo (El Gouna FC) 61'. On expected goals it finished 2.01–0.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Ittihad Alexandria these chances to finish in the top four: 26.6% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.6%.

For El Gouna FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.3% going in: 18.3% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.4%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.