29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Fiorentina vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Fiorentina, 27% draw, 22% Frosinone — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fiorentina at 51% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fiorentina0%Draw1%Frosinone99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Antonio Raimondo
Álex Jiménez
24'
24'
Gabriele Bracaglia
26'
⚽A. Raimondoassist: G. Kvernadze
38'
⚽G. Bracagliaassist: G. Calo
45+2'
Gabriele Calvani
46'
🔁S. Finiout: A. Zerbin
Albert Guðmundsson
49'
🔁M. Pongracicout: Viery
61'
🔁C. Ndourout: N. Fagioli
61'
68'
⚽A. Raimondoassist: G. Bracaglia
🔁A. Gudmundssonout: R. Mandragora
71'
🔁C. Inao Oulaiout: M. Brescianini
71'
74'
🔁G. Bracagliaout: A. Terzic
74'
🔁G. Calvaniout: G. Cittadini
82'
🔁G. Caloout: F. Grillitsch
🔁A. Jimenezout: Joao Mario
84'
89'
🔁A. Raimondoout: D. Birligea
Radu Drăguşin
90'

Match stats — Fiorentina vs Frosinone

60%Possession40%
25Shots12
4On target6
8Corners5
1.88xG1.06

Goals against chances

Fiorentina0 from 1.88 xGless than the chances were worth
Frosinone3 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fiorentina 4-3-3
  • 43D. de GeaG
  • 20A. JimenezD
  • 3R. DragusinD
  • 5M. PongracicD
  • 21V. Valdepenas
  • 27C. NdourM
  • 42C. Inao OulaiM
  • 14A. AttaM
  • 30F. MastantuonoF
  • 32M. PellegrinoF
  • 11A. GudmundssonF
Substitutes
  • 19L. LezzeriniG
  • 53O. ChristensenG
  • 6L. RanieriD
  • 33VieryD
  • 2DodoD
  • 17Joao MarioD
  • 8R. MandragoraM
  • 4M. BrescianiniM
  • 44N. FagioliM
Coach: Fabio Grosso
Frosinone 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. PalmisaniG
  • 20A. OyonoD
  • 3G. CalvaniD
  • 30I. MonterisiD
  • 79G. BracagliaD
  • 73P. MasiniM
  • 14G. CaloM
  • 40S. FiniM
  • 10R. SchmidM
  • 17G. KvernadzeM
  • 9A. RaimondoF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PisseriG
  • 91S. DesplanchesG
  • 71A. TerzicD
  • 2G. CittadiniD
  • 25K. AkpogumaD
  • 34A. El AzzouziM
  • 90E. TchatoD
  • 5W. AmeyD
  • 74O. FayedD
Coach: Massimiliano Alvini

Form going into Fiorentina vs Frosinone

Fiorentina

  • L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026

Frosinone

  • L0-1Juventus23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Fiorentina4103511-63
7Frosinone421174+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Frosinone

  • 29 August 2026Fiorentina 0–3 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 11 February 2024Fiorentina 5–1 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 28 September 2023Frosinone 1–1 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 7 April 2019Fiorentina 0–1 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 9 November 2018Frosinone 1–1 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 20 March 2016Frosinone 0–0 FiorentinaSerie A

Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Frosinone

Fiorentina

  • Franco Mastantuono3 goals
  • Mateo Pellegrino2 goals

Frosinone

  • A. Raimondo4 goals
  • G. Kvernadze2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.