29 August 2026, 21:30 UTC

Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result

MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Vitoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Atletico Mineiro, 25% draw, 22% Vitoria — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Mineiro at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Mineiro97%Draw3%Vitoria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Borbasassist: Reinier
25'
35'
Diego Tarzia
Ángelo Preciado
44'
46'
🔁E. Britezout: Matheusinho
Mamady Cissé
59'
🔁T. Borbasout: Gustavo Scarpa
60'
⚽Reinier
63'
69'
🔁D. Tarziaout: Matheuzinho
69'
🔁Emmanuel Martinezout: Erick
69'
🔁Alex Brunoout: Rene
🔁A. Mindaout: Dudu
75'
81'
🔁Caique Goncalvesout: Walace
87'
⚽Erick
🔁Alexsanderout: Vitor Hugo
90'
🔁Reinierout: Caua
90'

Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria

61%Possession39%
18Shots14
8On target3
4Corners5
1.46xG0.64

Goals against chances

Atletico Mineiro2 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Vitoria1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 23A. PreciadoD
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 40VitaoD
  • 36K. PasciniD
  • 25T. PerezM
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 39M. CisseM
  • 19ReinierM
  • 27A. MindaM
  • 18T. BorbasF
Substitutes
  • 31RobertG
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 6R. LodiD
  • 53Pedro LemosD
  • 21A. FrancoM
  • 10Gustavo ScarpaM
  • 15K. CastanoM
  • 48GutteM
  • 9M. CassierraF
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Vitoria 4-1-4-1
  • 1Lucas ArcanjoG
  • 2E. BritezD
  • 25CacaD
  • 36Luan CandidoD
  • 83JamersonD
  • 6Emmanuel MartinezM
  • 7MarinhoM
  • 8T. PochettinoM
  • 95Caique GoncalvesM
  • 12D. TarziaM
  • 9Alex BrunoF
Substitutes
  • 71YuriG
  • 98MatheusinhoD
  • 13RamonD
  • 15WalaceD
  • 10MatheuzinhoM
  • 88Ze VitorM
  • 26EdenilsonM
  • 11OsvaldoF
  • 33ErickF
Coach: Ventura Jair

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
  • W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026
  • W1-0RB Bragantino29 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Palmeiras26 July 2026

Vitoria

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
  • W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
  • L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vitoria failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Atletico Mineiro35149124440+451
15Vitoria34108163551-1638

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria

  • 14 March 2026Vitoria 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 31 August 2025Vitoria 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 13 April 2025Atletico Mineiro 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
  • 5 October 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
  • 20 June 2024Vitoria 4–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 26 August 2018Vitoria 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A

The full Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Vitoria

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Vitoria

GoalsAssists

  • Rene101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Mineiro beat Vitoria 2–1. The model had made a win for Atletico Mineiro its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Borbas 25' for Atletico Mineiro, Reinier 63' for Atletico Mineiro, Erick 87' for Vitoria. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.