29 August 2026, 23:00 UTC

Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sao Paulo 2-1 RB Bragantino.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sao Paulo, 28% draw, 34% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo99%Draw1%RB Bragantino0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jonathan Calleri
-5'
•Luciano
8'
13'
Isidro Pitta
⚽Luciano (pen)
14'
45'
Agustin Sant Anna
⚽G. Santana
45'
46'
🔁Eric Ramiresout: Fabinho
46'
🔁Vinicinhoout: Fernando Santos
🔁G. Santanaout: Andre Silva
55'
68'
🔁J. Herreraout: Gustavo Neves
68'
🔁Lucas Barbosaout: H. Mosquera
🔁Lucianoout: Lucas Ramon
71'
🔁Butaout: Pablo Maia
71'
78'
🔁I. Pittaout: Yuri Alves
Danielzinho
83'
André Silva
84'
🔁Danielzinhoout: Djhordney
84'
🔁Arturout: Ferreira
84'
86'
Henry Mosquera
90+5'
Juninho Capixaba
90'
•Fernando
90'
⚽Fernando Santosassist: H. Mosquera

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino

38%Possession62%
17Shots8
8On target3
9Corners7
1.55xG0.47

Goals against chances

Sao Paulo2 from 1.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
RB Bragantino1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 22D. DuarteD
  • 5Robert ArboledaD
  • 35SabinoD
  • 20ButaM
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 8Marcos AntonioM
  • 12Iago BorduchiM
  • 37ArturF
  • 43G. SantanaF
  • 10LucianoF
Substitutes
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 2R. ToloiD
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 54Luis OsorioD
  • 18WendellD
  • 80CaulyM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 48DjhordneyM
  • 11FerreiraF
Coach: Junior Dorival
RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
  • 18Tiago VolpiG
  • 23A. Sant'AnnaD
  • 14Pedro HenriqueD
  • 16Gustavo MarquesD
  • 29Juninho CapixabaD
  • 7Eric RamiresM
  • 20RodriguinhoM
  • 32J. HerreraM
  • 21Lucas BarbosaM
  • 17VinicinhoM
  • 9I. PittaF
Substitutes
  • 1CleitonG
  • 51Caue NascimentoD
  • 2G. RodriguezD
  • 34A. HurtadoD
  • 4Alix ViniciusD
  • 5FabinhoM
  • 22Gustavo NevesM
  • 6GabrielM
  • 35Matheus FernandesM
Coach: Mancini Vagner

Form going into Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino

Sao Paulo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
  • D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
  • L1-2Santos29 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026

RB Bragantino

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Gremio23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Paranaense15 August 2026
  • L0-2Corinthians9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro29 July 2026
  • D0-0Coritiba26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sao Paulo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for RB Bragantino had two goals or fewer.
  • RB Bragantino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo34128143939044
8RB Bragantino34138134439+547

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino

  • 15 March 2026RB Bragantino 1–2 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 21 February 2026RB Bragantino 1–2 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
  • 9 November 2025Sao Paulo 0–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 17 July 2025RB Bragantino 2–2 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 8 February 2025RB Bragantino 1–0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
  • 20 November 2024RB Bragantino 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A

The full Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

RB Bragantino

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sao Paulo beat RB Bragantino 2–1. The model had made a win for Sao Paulo its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luciano (penalty) 14' for Sao Paulo, G. Santana 45' for Sao Paulo, Fernando Santos 90' for RB Bragantino. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.47.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.