Ilves vs Lahti Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 3-1 Lahti.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Ilves, 32% draw, 32% Lahti — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Ilves at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ilves vs Lahti
Line-ups
- 12F. KrkalicG
- 13K. WalliusM
- 24V. KumpuD
- 5S. VaisanenD
- 3M. RaleD
- 6Y. RaapD
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 8M. StjopinM
- 9T. HytonenF
- 45E. TamminenF
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 19G. BambaM
- 27F. KouakouD
- 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
- 28J. KiloM
- 33Y. SackoM
- 17S. BaranovM
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 31O. MaukonenG
- 7D. HeikkinenM
- 5N. Gianini DantasD
- 6V. VehkonenD
- 25T. InkinenD
- 8C. MontielM
- 18Y. CassubieM
- 14E. AnderssonM
- 77M. SarrF
- 9A. LindholmF
- 20J. OjanenM
- 12A. HakalaG
- 2J. LehtonenD
- 3R. SansD
- 11Martim AugustoF
- 28A. KabashiM
- 10O. KoskinenM
- 17A. BelabidF
- 19NeemiasF
Form going into Ilves vs Lahti
Ilves
All competitions we cover
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka13 August 2026
Lahti
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
- L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Inter Turku9 August 2026
What these results say
- Ilves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ilves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lahti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ilves vs Lahti
- 26 July 2026Ilves 1–0 LahtiFinnish Premier League
- 10 June 2026Ilves 5–2 LahtiSuomen Cup
- 30 May 2026Lahti 5–0 IlvesFinnish Premier League
- 29 June 2024Lahti 2–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League
- 6 April 2024Ilves 0–0 LahtiFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Ilves and Lahti
Ilves
GoalsAssists
- T. Hytönen91
- J. Kanga43
- E. Tamminen42
Lahti
GoalsAssists
- Martim Ferreira51
- O. Koskinen32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ilves beat Lahti 3–1. The model had made a win for Ilves its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Tamminen 2' for Ilves, Martim Augusto 74' for Lahti, T. Hytonen (penalty) 80' for Ilves, S. Baranov 90' for Ilves.
How the call on Ilves v Lahti has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is Ilves's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Ilves win36%▼ −6
- Draw32%=
- Lahti win32%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.