Ilves vs Lahti Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 3-1 Lahti.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Ilves, 32% draw, 32% Lahti — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ilves vs Lahti
Line-ups
- 12F. KrkalicG
- 13K. WalliusM
- 24V. KumpuD
- 5S. VaisanenD
- 3M. RaleD
- 6Y. RaapD
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 8M. StjopinM
- 9T. HytonenF
- 45E. TamminenF
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 19G. BambaM
- 27F. KouakouD
- 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
- 28J. KiloM
- 33Y. SackoM
- 17S. BaranovM
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 31O. MaukonenG
- 7D. HeikkinenM
- 5N. Gianini DantasD
- 6V. VehkonenD
- 25T. InkinenD
- 8C. MontielM
- 18Y. CassubieM
- 14E. AnderssonM
- 77M. SarrF
- 9A. LindholmF
- 20J. OjanenM
- 12A. HakalaG
- 2J. LehtonenD
- 3R. SansD
- 11Martim AugustoF
- 28A. KabashiM
- 10O. KoskinenM
- 17A. BelabidF
- 19NeemiasF
Form going into Ilves vs Lahti
Ilves
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
Lahti
- W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
- W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
- W2-1away to SJK21 August 2026
- L1-2KuPS16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ilves vs Lahti
- 12 September 2026Ilves 3–1 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 26 July 2026Ilves 1–0 LahtiVeikkausliiga
- 10 June 2026Ilves 5–2 LahtiSuomen Cup
- 30 May 2026Lahti 5–0 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 29 June 2024Lahti 2–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 6 April 2024Ilves 0–0 LahtiVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Ilves and Lahti
Ilves
- T. Hytönen6 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists
Lahti
- Martim Ferreira3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.