Mariehamn vs Turku PS Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mariehamn, 30% draw, 32% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mariehamn at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Line-ups
- 1K. LundG
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 27L. RichtnerD
- 31S. NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundD
- 8J. HeydenM
- 20E. PatutM
- 14A. BergvikM
- 7A. LarssonF
- 11J. SvedbergM
- 12O. HeinoG
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 64M. HyvonenM
- 18A. StroudM
- 43L. AnderssonF
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 19T. JakobsenM
- 1E. HenrikssonG
- 20M. KauppilaD
- 15C. AzongnitodeD
- 14M. HradeckyD
- 25A. TambaD
- 6P. JuvantenyM
- 22T. ZaalM
- 10M. KonkkolaM
- 28T. VakipartaM
- 41S. AniniF
- 99K. VisserF
- 35D. LauriG
- 2O. HaggstromD
- 3E. TurkkiD
- 24N. TaloD
- 17A. SihvonenD
- 26L. IkonenM
- 9L. IvanovicF
- 44N. VeinbergsF
Form going into Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Mariehamn
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
Turku PS
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Turku PS
- 12 September 2026Mariehamn 1–0 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 1 August 2026Turku PS 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 4 April 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 11 February 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSLeague Cup
- 28 May 2025Mariehamn 2–2 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 22 March 2024Mariehamn 1–3 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Mariehamn and Turku PS
Mariehamn
No player in Veikkausliiga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.