Mariehamn vs Turku PS Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Mariehamn 1-0 Turku PS.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mariehamn, 30% draw, 32% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mariehamn at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Line-ups
- 1K. LundG
- 5T. KoivistoD
- 2N. NurmiD
- 27L. RichtnerD
- 31S. NgulubeD
- 23V. WidlundD
- 8J. HeydenM
- 20E. PatutM
- 14A. BergvikM
- 7A. LarssonF
- 11J. SvedbergM
- 12O. HeinoG
- 3A. SoiniemiD
- 64M. HyvonenM
- 18A. StroudM
- 43L. AnderssonF
- 16A. HuttunenM
- 19T. JakobsenM
- 1E. HenrikssonG
- 20M. KauppilaD
- 15C. AzongnitodeD
- 14M. HradeckyD
- 25A. TambaD
- 6P. JuvantenyM
- 22T. ZaalM
- 10M. KonkkolaM
- 28T. VakipartaM
- 41S. AniniF
- 99K. VisserF
- 35D. LauriG
- 2O. HaggstromD
- 3E. TurkkiD
- 24N. TaloD
- 17A. SihvonenD
- 26L. IkonenM
- 9L. IvanovicF
- 44N. VeinbergsF
Form going into Mariehamn vs Turku PS
Mariehamn
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
- W2-0SJK15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026
Turku PS
All competitions we cover
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
- D1-1away to KuPS9 August 2026
What these results say
- Mariehamn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Turku PS went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Turku PS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Turku PS
- 1 August 2026Turku PS 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
- 4 April 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSFinnish Premier League
- 11 February 2026Mariehamn 1–1 Turku PSLeague Cup
- 28 May 2025Mariehamn 2–2 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 22 March 2024Mariehamn 1–3 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Mariehamn beat Turku PS 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Mariehamn at 38%. The goal: A. Bergvik 7' for Mariehamn.
How the call on Mariehamn v Turku PS has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Mariehamn's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Mariehamn win38%▲ +2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Turku PS win32%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.