Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg DFB Pokal prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 5-2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Bayer Leverkusen, 17% draw, 11% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 8R. AndrichM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 23N. TellaF
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 42M. CulbreathM
- 39K. DoganayM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 30I. MazaM
- 15T. OermannD
- 4J. QuansahD
- 14P. SchickF
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 20F. OttoD
- 14Andrea CeresoliD
- 6A. MarhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 18Rafael LubachM
- 11W. BøvingF
- 9S. HaugenF
- 7R. GhriebF
- 13Robin LisewskiG
- 21G. MasourasD
- 5S. MkrtchyanD
- 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
- 41E. PorstnerD
- 19P. ScobelF
- 16Marko SoldicM
- 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim25 October 2026
- W2-0away to OFI22 October 2026
- W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lech Poznan15 October 2026
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga
- L0-11. FC Kaiserslautern24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus16 October 2026
- D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- 20 April 2019Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC NurnbergBundesliga
- 3 December 2018FC Nurnberg 1–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 20 April 2014FC Nurnberg 1–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 30 November 2013Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 FC NurnbergBundesliga
- 4 May 2013FC Nurnberg 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 1 December 2012Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 FC NurnbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg
Bayer Leverkusen
No leading scorers listed yet.
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Nürnberg 5–2. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Rafael Lubach 13' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Sigurd Haugen 30' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Edmond Tapsoba 41' for Bayer Leverkusen, Edmond Tapsoba 49' for Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick (penalty) 70' for Bayer Leverkusen, Jonas Hofmann 78' for Bayer Leverkusen, Lucas Vázquez 89' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 3.06–1.02.
How the call on Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Nürnberg has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 74% / 16% / 10% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 72% / 17% / 11%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Bayer Leverkusen win72%▼ −2
- Draw17%▲ +1
- 1. FC Nürnberg win11%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Bayer Leverkusen's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and 1. FC Nürnberg's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.