28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg DFB Pokal prediction & result

Allianz Arena, Munich
Referee: Harm Osmers
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Bayern München 6-1 1. FC Magdeburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% Bayern München, 9% draw, 4% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00.

Most likely scoreline: 4-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 87%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bayern München99%Draw1%1. FC Magdeburg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Michael Oliseassist: Ismael Saibari
10'
15'
⚽Mateusz Zukowskiassist: Felipe Chávez
⚽Ismael Saibariassist: Michael Olise
21'
🔁Serge Gnabryout: Alphonso Davies
45'
⚽Michael Olise (pen)
50'
63'
🔁Alexander Nollenbergerout: Herbert Bockhorn
63'
🔁Felipe Chávezout: Falko Michel
🔁Konrad Laimerout: Aleksandar Pavlović
68'
🔁Michael Oliseout: Sacha Boey
68'
⚽Alphonso Daviesassist: Lennart Karl
70'
⚽Nathaniel Brownassist: Alphonso Davies
73'
🔁Ismael Saibariout: Tim Binder
75'
75'
🔁Emmanuel Iyohaout: Magnus Elias Walther Baars
75'
🔁Luka Hyryläinenout: Leon Mergner
80'
Falko Michel
🔁Tom Bischofout: David Daiber
82'
Nathaniel Brown
84'
85'
🔁Torben Müselout: Richmond Tachie
86'
Garcia MacNulty
Aleksandar Pavlović
89'
90+1'
Pierre Nadjombe
⚽David Daiberassist: Josip Stanišić
90+3'

Match stats — Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg

63%Possession37%
19Shots9
8On target2
6Corners0
3.99xG0.66

Goals against chances

Bayern München6 from 3.99 xGmore than the chances were worth
1. FC Magdeburg1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 27K. LaimerM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 7S. GnabryM
  • 34I. SaibariF
Substitutes
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 23S. BoeyD
  • 46T. BinderF
  • 9H. KaneF
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 47David DaiberM
  • 26S. UlreichG
Coach: V. Kompany
1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 5T. MüllerD
  • 3A. MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 38L. HyryläinenM
  • 11F. ChávezM
  • 26T. MüselM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ŻukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 7H. BockhornD
  • 15D. HeberD
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 33Leon MergnerM
  • 21F. MichelM
  • 9R. ŠimićF
  • 29R. TachieF
  • 35Magnus Elias BaarsF
Coach: P. Sander

Form going into Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Bayern München

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to SC Freiburg25 October 2026
  • D2-2Arsenal21 October 2026
  • W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

  • W6-1Karlsruher SC24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
  • W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bayern München scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bayern München conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Bayern München and 1. FC Magdeburg

Bayern München

No leading scorers listed yet.

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayern München beat 1. FC Magdeburg 6–1. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 87%, so the call held; the score it named was 4–0. The goals: Michael Olise 10' for Bayern München, Mateusz Zukowski 15' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Ismael Saibari 21' for Bayern München, Michael Olise (penalty) 50' for Bayern München, Alphonso Davies 70' for Bayern München, Nathaniel Brown 73' for Bayern München, David Daiber 90+3' for Bayern München. On expected goals it finished 3.99–0.66.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.