Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory A-League prediction & result
Final score: Adelaide United 2-2 Melbourne Victory.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Adelaide United, 25% draw, 40% Melbourne Victory — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Melbourne Victory at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Line-ups
- 22Joshua SmitsG
- 14Jay BarnettD
- 52Sotiri PhillisD
- 4Panagiotis KikianisD
- 7Ryan KittoD
- 10Juan MuñizM
- 23Luke DuzelM
- 55Ethan AlagichM
- 11Craig GoodwinM
- 35Brody BurkittF
- 27Mitchell SmithF
- 87AnselmoM
- 19Amlani TatuF
- 58Harry CrawfordF
- 65Joey GaruccioM
- 62Fabian TalladiraM
- 40Ethan CoxG
- 79Feyzo KasumovicD
- 25Jack DuncanG
- 5Brendan HamillD
- 4Philipp ZiereisD
- 3Jason DavidsonD
- 18Franco LinoD
- 8Jordi ValadonM
- 6Louis D'ArrigoM
- 11ClarismarioM
- 14Matthew GrimaldiM
- 23Keegan JelacicM
- 44Charles NdukaF
- 10Denis GenreauM
- 22Xavier StellaD
- 29Michael GhossainiF
- 1Jack WarshawskyG
- 38John RadimisisD
- 19Oliver DragicevicM
- 9Harry SawyerF
Form going into Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United
A-League
- L0-4away to Perth Glory1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Sydney FC25 October 2026
Melbourne Victory
A-League
- D1-1Central Coast Mariners1 November 2026
- D1-1Melbourne City24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wellington Phoenix18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
- 27 February 2026Melbourne Victory 1–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 17 January 2026Adelaide United 2–1 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 13 December 2025Melbourne Victory 2–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 29 March 2025Melbourne Victory 5–3 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 18 January 2025Adelaide United 3–2 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 21 September 2024Melbourne Victory 1–0 Adelaide UnitedAustralia Cup
Leading scorers: Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United
GoalsAssists
- Brody Burkitt20
Melbourne Victory
GoalsAssists
- K. Jelacic20
- J. Valadon20
- C. Nduka12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Melbourne Victory at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Burkitt 45+3' for Adelaide United, J. Valadon 64' for Melbourne Victory, K. Jelacic 70' for Melbourne Victory, J. Garuccio 90+9' for Adelaide United. Sent off: P. Ziereis (Melbourne Victory) 86'.
How the call on Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 38% / 25% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is Adelaide United's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Adelaide United win35%▼ −3
- Draw25%=
- Melbourne Victory win40%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.