Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix A-League prediction & result
Final score: Auckland FC 0-0 Wellington Phoenix.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Auckland FC, 25% draw, 35% Wellington Phoenix — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Auckland FC at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
Line-ups
- 1Michael WoudG
- 2Hiroki SakaiD
- 23Ronan WynneD
- 4Nando PijnakerD
- 15Francis De VriesD
- 16Daniel NormannM
- 8Felipe GallegosM
- 17Callan ElliotM
- 10Lachlan BaylissM
- 27Logan RogersonM
- 9Sam CosgroveF
- 77Lachlan BrookF
- 21Isa PrinsM
- 30Joseph James KnowlesG
- 46James MitchellM
- 57Van FitzharrisM
- 18Marley LeuluaiM
- 35Jonty BidoisF
- 13Henry GrayG
- 27Matthew SheridanD
- 28Bill TuilomaD
- 18Lukas Kelly-HealdD
- 23James McGarryD
- 7Bryce DukeM
- 8Max AndersonM
- 14Alex RuferM
- 25Kazuki NagasawaM
- 99Corban PiperF
- 9Rafael DuranF
- 11Riley BidoisF
- 30Alby Kelly-HealdG
- 24Tze-xuan LokeF
- 15Isaac HughesD
- 5Walter ScottD
- 17Nathan WalkerF
- 35Luke MitchellM
Form going into Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
Auckland FC
A-League
- D1-1away to Brisbane Roar30 October 2026
- L2-5away to Western Sydney Wanderers24 October 2026
- W3-1Melbourne City17 October 2026
Wellington Phoenix
A-League
- W3-0away to Newcastle Jets31 October 2026
- W2-0Central Coast Mariners25 October 2026
- W2-1Melbourne Victory18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Auckland FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
- 21 February 2026Wellington Phoenix 0–5 Auckland FCA-League
- 6 December 2025Auckland FC 3–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 8 November 2025Wellington Phoenix 1–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 22 February 2025Auckland FC 6–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 7 December 2024Auckland FC 2–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 2 November 2024Wellington Phoenix 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
Leading scorers: Auckland FC and Wellington Phoenix
Auckland FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Bayliss20
Wellington Phoenix
GoalsAssists
- C. Piper30
- R. Bidois20
- N. Walker11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Auckland FC and Wellington Phoenix drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Auckland FC at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
How the call on Auckland FC v Wellington Phoenix has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 47% / 24% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Auckland FC's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Auckland FC win40%▼ −7
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Wellington Phoenix win35%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.