Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar A-League prediction & result
Final score: Macarthur FC 1-2 Brisbane Roar.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Macarthur FC, 27% draw, 33% Brisbane Roar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Macarthur FC at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
Line-ups
- 1Alex RobinsonG
- 25Callum TalbotD
- 3Nara TatsukiD
- 21Nathan PaullD
- 7Connor PainD
- 18Dylan RoseM
- 22Liam RoseM
- 8Luke VickeryM
- 24Dean BosnjakM
- 99Musa TouréM
- 16Apostolos StamatelopoulosF
- 10Ryan FraserF
- 6Kai KennedyF
- 9Ben GibsonF
- 29Zane HelwehF
- 30Joshua LakkisG
- 31Sebastian KrslovicD
- 17Oliver RandazzoM
- 40George PlusninG
- 77Milorad StajićD
- 5Tom AldredD
- 16Joel KingD
- 13Tate RussellM
- 10Tae Hee NamM
- 6Noah MaieroniM
- 8Tyrese FrancoisM
- 19Sabit James NgorM
- 9Virgiliu PostolachiF
- 17Justin VidicF
- 15Hosine BilityD
- 22Nathan AmanatidisF
- 11Marko IlicF
- 14Emin DurakovicM
- 44Jordan LautonM
- 1Dean BouzanisG
- 2Jacob NassoD
Form going into Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
Macarthur FC
A-League
- D0-0Western Sydney Wanderers31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Newcastle Jets24 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
Brisbane Roar
A-League
- D1-1Auckland FC30 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory23 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
- 19 December 2025Macarthur FC 2–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 17 October 2025Brisbane Roar 1–0 Macarthur FCA-League
- 4 April 2025Brisbane Roar 1–5 Macarthur FCA-League
- 30 November 2024Macarthur FC 4–4 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 16 March 2024Brisbane Roar 1–2 Macarthur FCA-League
- 18 January 2024Brisbane Roar 1–3 Macarthur FCA-League
Leading scorers: Macarthur FC and Brisbane Roar
Macarthur FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Toure11
Brisbane Roar
GoalsAssists
- J. Vidic20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brisbane Roar won 2–1 at Macarthur FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Macarthur FC at 40% and given a win for Brisbane Roar 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. James Ngor 48' for Brisbane Roar, A. Stamatelopoulos 64' for Macarthur FC, J. Vidic 90+5' for Brisbane Roar.
How the call on Macarthur FC v Brisbane Roar has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Macarthur FC's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Macarthur FC win40%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Brisbane Roar win33%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.