28 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
Referee: Edwin Ordonez
Full time1 – 3

Final score: FC Cajamarca 1-3 UTC Cajamarca.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% FC Cajamarca, 24% draw, 24% UTC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Cajamarca at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cajamarca0%Draw1%UTC Cajamarca99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Marlon de Jesúsassist: Adolfo Muñoz
21'
Marlon de Jesús
25'
Arquímedes Figuera
45'
🔁Joshua Canttout: David Dioses
•Paulo Goyoneche
52'
Paulo Goyoneche
52'
56'
🔁Adolfo Muñozout: Luis Arce
🔁Michel Rasmussenout: Carlos Correa
56'
57'
🔁Dylan Caroout: Carlos Junior Huerto
🔁Carlos Mezaout: P. Cejas
64'
67'
🔁Marlon de Jesúsout: Abdiel Arroyo
71'
⚽Marcos Lliuyaassist: David Dioses
🔁R. Suárezout: Jonathan Betancourt
75'
🔁José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónezout: Arthur Alexander Gutiérrez Inga
76'
81'
⚽Abdiel Arroyo (pen)
84'
🔁David Camachoout: Santiago Gálvez
⚽S. Encisoassist: Jonathan Betancourt
88'

Match stats — FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca

53%Possession47%
11Shots9
5On target5
3Corners4
0.64xG1.46

Goals against chances

FC Cajamarca1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
UTC Cajamarca3 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 3J. MedinaG
  • 66R. SuarezD
  • 21J. VegaD
  • 95Y. VílchezD
  • 31S. EncisoD
  • 64P. GoyonecheM
  • 18Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela IzquierdoM
  • 20C. MezaM
  • 90M. RasmussenM
  • 17B. PalaciosM
  • 77J. LugoF
Substitutes
  • 32P. AlegriaF
  • 12S. Aspajo CohenG
  • 88H. CamachoM
  • 27J. BetancourtM
  • 99P. CejasF
  • 69C. CorreaM
  • 65A. GutiérrezD
  • 80Valentino Ybrahin Sandoval SánchezF
  • 26H. TimanáD
Coach: Santiago Acasiete
UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. CamposG
  • 17L. GarroD
  • 2B. DuarteD
  • 6F. CavagnaD
  • 13D. CaroD
  • 15J. CerroM
  • 16A. FigueraM
  • 22D. CamachoM
  • 10M. LliuyaM
  • 19A. MuñozM
  • 9M. de JesúsF
Substitutes
  • 5J. HuertoD
  • 7J. NunezF
  • 8D. DiosesM
  • 21R. BettocchiG
  • 29I. BarriosG
  • 11A. ArroyoF
  • 88L. ArceM
  • 35G. ParedesD
  • 18S. GálvezF
Coach: C. Molins

Form going into FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca

FC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L2-4away to Sport Boys25 October 2026
  • L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026

UTC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L1-2FBC Melgar23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Cajamarca3387184665-1929
18UTC Cajamarca3359193858-2014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca

  • 26 June 2026UTC Cajamarca 3–1 FC CajamarcaCopa De La Liga
  • 8 May 2026UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FC CajamarcaPrimera División

Leading scorers: FC Cajamarca and UTC Cajamarca

FC Cajamarca

GoalsAssists

  • M. Arrasco85
  • B. Palacios84

UTC Cajamarca

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

UTC Cajamarca won 3–1 at FC Cajamarca. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cajamarca at 52% and given a win for UTC Cajamarca 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marlon de Jesús 20' for UTC Cajamarca, Marcos Lliuya 71' for UTC Cajamarca, Abdiel Arroyo (penalty) 81' for UTC Cajamarca, S. Enciso 88' for FC Cajamarca. Sent off: Paulo Goyoneche (FC Cajamarca) 52'. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cajamarca a 24.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 10.7% after a win, 32.1% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.5%, 24.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 55% / 23% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is FC Cajamarca's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Cajamarca win52%▼ −3
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. UTC Cajamarca win24%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.