6 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa 1. Division prediction & result

AEK Arena, Larnaca
Referee: Andreas Tehrany, Cyprus
Full time4 – 1

Final score: AEK Larnaca 4-1 Karmiotissa.

Before kick-off the model made it 77% AEK Larnaca, 16% draw, 7% Karmiotissa — fair odds of 1.30, 6.25 and 14.29.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AEK Larnaca at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Larnaca99%Draw1%Karmiotissa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

G. Ekpolo
36'
⚽R. Bajic
42'
⚽A. Layouni
44'
45+2'
D. A. Reynolds
46'
🔁Julio Cesarout: C. Wheeler
54'
⚽R. Garcia
S. Kohler
58'
61'
🔁T. Kyprouout: I. Savvidis
61'
🔁P. Psychasout: J. Pawirodihardjo
🔁R. Bajicout: A. Trica
64'
🔁A. Layouniout: D. Ivanovic
69'
🔁Y. Chaconout: Y. Amyn
69'
70'
🔁M. Kokkinoftasout: M. Bajunovic
72'
C. Wheeler
79'
🔁J. Smairaout: M. Theocharous
🔁N. Andereggenout: K. Mrabti
84'
🔁K. Pileasout: B. Olivan
84'
⚽E. Saborit
85'
⚽A. Trica
90+2'

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca 3-4-1-2
  • 92Alberto PaleariG
  • 22Godswill EkpoloD
  • 15Hrvoje MiličevićD
  • 4Enric SaboritD
  • 14Amor LayouniM
  • 23Sven KöhlerD
  • 6Ivan Chavdarov PankovM
  • 17Kostas PileasD
  • 10Yerson ChacónM
  • 11Riad BajićF
  • 33Nicolas AndereggenF
Substitutes
  • 19Atanas TricăF
  • 8Youssef AmynM
  • 9Đorđe IvanovićM
  • 5Brian OlivánD
  • 28Kerim MrabtiF
  • 51Andreas ParaskevasG
  • 2Petros IoannouD
  • 3Mike Van der HoornD
  • 44Zacharias AdoniD
Karmiotissa 4-4-2
  • 1Nikos GiannakopoulosG
  • 22Rubén GarcíaD
  • 44Jad SmairaD
  • 8Curtis YebliD
  • 33Julio CésarD
  • 21Petros PsychasM
  • 20Marios KokkinoftasM
  • 10Alastair ReynoldsM
  • 42Nassim OuammouM
  • 9Patrick LuanF
  • 17Theodosis KyprouF
Substitutes
  • 6Christos WheelerD
  • 11Iakovos SavvidisM
  • 34Jael PawaridihadjoF
  • 7Mateja BajunovicM
  • 30Marios TheocharousM
  • 18Andreas ViolarisG
  • 24Charalampos PavlouG
  • 57Artemis SpanosD
  • 97Angelos ArgyriouD

Form going into AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa

AEK Larnaca

1. Division

  • D2-2away to Krasava Ypsonas31 October 2026
  • W2-0Omonia Nicosia26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Aris18 October 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026

Karmiotissa

1. Division

  • W1-0Olympiakos30 October 2026
  • L0-5Apollon Limassol25 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Krasava Ypsonas17 October 2026
  • L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026

What these results say

  • AEK Larnaca went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AEK Larnaca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for AEK Larnaca had two goals or fewer.
  • Karmiotissa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Karmiotissa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Karmiotissa had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1AEK Larnaca9621198+1120
12Karmiotissa9135620-146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa

  • 22 February 2025Karmiotissa 0–3 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 25 November 2024AEK Larnaca 2–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
  • 26 January 2024Karmiotissa 1–3 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 21 October 2023AEK Larnaca 5–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
  • 4 February 2023Karmiotissa 1–3 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 30 October 2022AEK Larnaca 4–0 Karmiotissa1. Division

Leading scorers: AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa

AEK Larnaca

GoalsAssists

  • Đ. Ivanović21

Karmiotissa

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick Luan11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AEK Larnaca beat Karmiotissa 4–1. The model had made a win for AEK Larnaca its most likely outcome, at 77%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: R. Bajic 42' for AEK Larnaca, A. Layouni 44' for AEK Larnaca, R. Garcia 54' for Karmiotissa, E. Saborit 85' for AEK Larnaca, A. Trica 90+2' for AEK Larnaca.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AEK Larnaca a 34.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 36.2% after a win, 23.7% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.2%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

For Karmiotissa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 80.8% going in: 66.6% after a win, 77.5% after a draw, 82.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.1%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AEK Larnaca v Karmiotissa has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 72% / 19% / 9% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 77% / 16% / 7%: the biggest move is AEK Larnaca's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. AEK Larnaca win77%▲ +5
  2. Draw16%▼ −3
  3. Karmiotissa win7%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.