6 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

HB Koge vs Aalborg 1. Division prediction & result

Capelli Sport Stadion, Koge
Referee: F. Klarlund
Full time1 – 1

Final score: HB Koge 1-1 Aalborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% HB Koge, 26% draw, 28% Aalborg — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HB Koge at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HB Koge5%Draw91%Aalborg4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽N. A. Arnorssonassist: J. Adedeji
42'
J. Adedeji
🔁G. Culhaciout: E. Semovski
46'
🔁M. Romerout: G. Larsen
46'
L. Bust
48'
⚽F. Isakiassist: M. Jensen
49'
🔁L. Bustout: L. Achton
66'
🔁M. Jensenout: C. Jensen Tue
66'
70'
🔁J. Adedejiout: K. John
70'
🔁A. Hapnesout: F. Borsting
F. Isaki
73'
G. Larsen
80'
80'
🔁V. Mollerout: J. Hvistendahl
80'
🔁K. Normannout: W. Thomsen
🔁T. Thomsenout: M. Warming
81'
M. Westergren
90+1'

Line-ups

HB Koge
  • 1N. Sommergaard
  • 23M. Westergren
  • 22M. Jakobsen
  • 2L. Bust
  • 14V. Sorensen
  • 8M. Romer
  • 7M. Jensen
  • 6R. Brodersen
  • 25F. Isaki
  • 9T. Thomsen
  • 5G. Culhaci
Substitutes
  • 16C. Mols
  • 4S. Hald
  • 28G. Larsen
  • 17L. Achton
  • 21N. Jakobsen
  • 19E. Semovski
  • 11M. Warming
  • 10C. Jensen Tue
  • 27N. Stolshoj
Coach: Nicklas Pedersen
Aalborg
  • 1V. Muller
  • 8A. Hapnes
  • 21P. Sondergaard
  • 4B. Tiedemann
  • 33E. Makolli
  • 17A. Jasson
  • 24N. A. Arnorsson
  • 11K. Normann
  • 28V. Moller
  • 14M. Kubel
  • 7J. Adedeji
Substitutes
  • 22R. De Boer
  • 15C. Olsson
  • 26M. Bonde
  • 25F. Borsting
  • 27K. John
  • 48D. Popalzai
  • 30W. Thomsen
  • 46J. Hvistendahl

Form going into HB Koge vs Aalborg

HB Koge

1. Division

  • L2-3away to Kolding IF31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Hvidovre23 October 2026
  • L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026

Aalborg

1. Division

  • D1-1Hobro30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hillerød24 October 2026
  • L0-1Vejle17 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026

What these results say

  • HB Koge scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • HB Koge failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • HB Koge conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Aalborg did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Aalborg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Aalborg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11HB Koge142662026-612
6Aalborg143741719-216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HB Koge vs Aalborg

  • 29 August 2026Aalborg 0–0 HB Koge1. Division
  • 30 May 2026Aalborg 1–0 HB Koge1. Division
  • 26 April 2026HB Koge 1–1 Aalborg1. Division
  • 2 October 2025Aalborg 2–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 10 August 2025HB Koge 0–2 Aalborg1. Division
  • 3 December 2023HB Koge 1–2 Aalborg1. Division

The result against the call

HB Koge and Aalborg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for HB Koge at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. A. Arnorsson 10' for Aalborg, F. Isaki 49' for HB Koge.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HB Koge a 50.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.8% after a win, 55.4% after a draw, 67.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 55.4%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Aalborg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.9% going in: 12.4% after a win, 26.7% after a draw, 36.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.7%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.