6 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Qarabag vs Turan Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Referee: F. Hajiyev
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Qarabag 0-1 Turan.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Qarabag, 27% draw, 18% Turan — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Qarabag at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qarabag0%Draw5%Turan95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

59'
🔁A. Jankovicout: R. Sadykhov
🔁B. Varkonyiout: Matheus Silva
72'
72'
I. Wadji
80'
⚽R. Miller
85'
🔁R. Olabeout: D. Balau
85'
🔁R. Millerout: R. Mammadov
🔁S. Lobatoout: J. Mouaddib
85'
🔁R. Khadraout: M. Qurbanly
85'
🔁O. Kashchukout: T. Ismaheel
85'
90+1'
🔁Henrique Silvaout: D. Marandici

Line-ups

Qarabag
  • 1S. Mahammadaliyev
  • 55B. Huseynov
  • 5B. Langa
  • 29R. Cephas
  • 9Z. Sawo
  • 25C. Makreckis
  • 21O. Kashchuk
  • 11R. Khadra
  • 88S. Lobato
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 33Diego Rosa
Substitutes
  • 23M. Zlomislic
  • 12T. Hasanov
  • 13B. Mustafazada
  • 22M. Qurbanly
  • 32H. Cabrayilzada
  • 8M. Jankovic
  • 20Kady Borges
  • 2Matheus Silva
  • 19T. Ismaheel
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov
Turan
  • 1O. Baklov
  • 5R. Miller
  • 21S. Beusnard
  • 3Henrique Silva
  • 90Jo Batista
  • 77I. Wadji
  • 15E. Hackman
  • 7J. Silva
  • 19R. Olabe
  • 33F. Damjanovic
  • 28A. Jankovic
Substitutes
  • 35A. Kenyaykin
  • 13M. Haciyev
  • 4R. Mammadov
  • 17R. Sadykhov
  • 88F. Haciyev
  • 99S. Shafiyev
  • 25D. Marandici
  • 8D. Tavares
  • 11D. Balau
Coach: Kurban Berdyev

Form going into Qarabag vs Turan

Qarabag

Premyer Liqa

  • D0-0away to Qabala31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Sabah FA25 October 2026
  • D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026

Turan

Premyer Liqa

  • W3-2Sabah FA30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Neftchi Baku24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Imisli FK18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Qarabag went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Qarabag failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Qarabag kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Turan scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Turan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Turan had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Qarabag10541148+619
2Turan11632128+421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Turan

  • 4 May 2026Qarabag 2–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 1 February 2026Qarabag 1–0 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 17 October 2025Turan 1–2 QarabagPremyer Liqa
  • 28 March 2025Turan 1–4 QarabagPremyer Liqa
  • 26 January 2025Qarabag 1–2 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 1 November 2024Turan 0–0 QarabagPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Turan won 1–0 at Qarabag. The model had leaned towards a win for Qarabag at 55% and given a win for Turan 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: R. Miller 80' for Turan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Qarabag a 23.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 25.9% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.2%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.

For Turan the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 52.3% going in: 59.2% after a win, 53.2% after a draw, 49.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.2%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Qarabag v Turan has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 59% / 24% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 55% / 27% / 18%: the biggest move is Qarabag's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Qarabag win55%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%▲ +3
  3. Turan win18%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.