23 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Akhmat vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result

Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj
Referee: Evgeniy Bulanov, Russia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Akhmat 0-1 FC Orenburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Akhmat, 29% draw, 30% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Akhmat at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Akhmat0%Draw4%FC Orenburg96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽Dmitriy Rybchinskiyassist: Jordhy Thompson
🔁Kirill Shchetininout: Mohamed Konate
52'
60'
🔁Aleksey Tataevout: Danila Khotulev
62'
Gedeon Guzina
Mohamed Konate
66'
🔁Miroslav Bogosavacout: Erald maksuti
67'
🔁Georgiy Melkadzeout: Maksim Sidorov
67'
71'
🔁Damian Pueblaout: Egor Nazarenko
71'
🔁Dmitriy Rybchinskiyout: Renat Golybin
🔁Egas Cacinturaout: Maksim Samorodov
77'
83'
🔁Jordhy Thompsonout: Andrey Kasadzhikov
83'
🔁Gedeon Guzinaout: Anton Lukashov
90+3'
Anton Lukashov

Match stats — Akhmat vs FC Orenburg

64%Possession36%
24Shots10
5On target5
5Corners2
1.65xG0.76

Goals against chances

Akhmat0 from 1.65 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Orenburg1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 6K. SidibéD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 4T. IbishevM
  • 11Ismael Silva LimaM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 17Egas CacinturaM
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 77G. MelkadzeF
Substitutes
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 97A. KasadzhikovF
  • 42Manuel KelianoM
  • 13M. KonatéF
  • 76E. MaksutiF
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 20M. SamorodovF
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 54Kirill KistenevD
Coach: S. Cherchesov
FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 24M. SivisD
  • 6J. PalaciosD
  • 5A. TataevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 78R. KulM
  • 57E. BolotovM
  • 10J. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 27Renat GolybinM
  • 3D. VedernikovD
  • 80M. PykhcheevM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 22A. LukashovD
  • 53V. KorobovG
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 38A. KasimovD
Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov

Form going into Akhmat vs FC Orenburg

Akhmat

Premier League

  • L2-3away to Zenit18 October 2026
  • D0-0Baltika11 October 2026

FC Orenburg

Premier League

  • D2-2away to Rodina Moskva19 October 2026
  • W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Akhmat143561619-314
10FC Orenburg143831414017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Akhmat vs FC Orenburg

  • 5 December 2025Akhmat 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 30 September 2025Akhmat 0–1 FC OrenburgCup
  • 22 August 2025FC Orenburg 2–2 AkhmatPremier League
  • 13 August 2025FC Orenburg 2–1 AkhmatCup
  • 8 December 2024Akhmat 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
  • 28 July 2024FC Orenburg 0–0 AkhmatPremier League

Leading scorers: Akhmat and FC Orenburg

Akhmat

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sadulaev33

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Orenburg won 1–0 at Akhmat. The model had leaned towards a win for Akhmat at 41% and given a win for FC Orenburg 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy 38' for FC Orenburg. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Akhmat a 18.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 12.6% after a win, 19.3% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.7%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.

For FC Orenburg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 19.0% going in: 11.5% after a win, 17.3% after a draw, 23.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Akhmat v FC Orenburg has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Akhmat's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Akhmat win41%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%=
  3. FC Orenburg win30%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.