Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Ipswich 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Ipswich, 26% draw, 35% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Ipswich at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28C. WaltonG
- 42A. OuattaraD
- 6I. DiopD
- 26D. O'SheaD
- 3L. DavisD
- 25E. PalaciosM
- 12FlorentinoM
- 7A. FatawuM
- 10J. EncisoM
- 11J. PhilogeneM
- 19EmersonnF
- 9Z. FlemmingF
- 29C. AkpomF
- 38D. MaedaF
- 47J. ClarkeF
- 32M. NúñezM
- 5A. MatusiwaM
- 24J. GreavesD
- 2D. FurlongD
- 37K. ScherpenG
- 26M. SelsG
- 23JairD
- 31N. MilenkovićD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 19L. DelapF
- 15A. KalimuendoF
- 9C. WoodF
- 22R. YatesM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 34O. AinaD
- 25L. NetzD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 12JohnG
Form going into Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Ipswich
Premier League
- L2-3away to Manchester City17 October 2026
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
- L0-1Arsenal18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Ipswich and Nottingham Forest have met 7 times in the records we hold, Nottingham Forest has won 4 of them to Ipswich's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Ipswich on 23 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| Nottingham Forest | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueIpswich 1–1 Nottingham Forest - 15 Mar 2025
Premier LeagueIpswich 2–4 Nottingham Forest - 3 Mar 2025
FA CupNottingham Forest 1–1 Ipswich - 30 Nov 2024
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 1–0 Ipswich - 16 Mar 2019
ChampionshipIpswich 1–1 Nottingham Forest - 1 Dec 2018
ChampionshipNottingham Forest 2–0 Ipswich - 14 Apr 2018
ChampionshipNottingham Forest 2–1 Ipswich
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Ipswich's attack rates 18% above Nottingham Forest's, and Nottingham Forest concede 29% fewer than Ipswich. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.93 | 0.87 |
The result against the call
Ipswich and Nottingham Forest drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ipswich at 39% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Neco Williams 13' for Nottingham Forest, Julio Enciso 41' for Ipswich. On expected goals it finished 0.49–2.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ipswich a 16.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.1% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 20.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 16.8%.
For Nottingham Forest the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.6% going in: 11.5% after a win, 17.8% after a draw, 19.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.8%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ipswich v Nottingham Forest has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is Ipswich's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Ipswich win39%▲ +6
- Draw26%=
- Nottingham Forest win35%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.