23 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Araz vs Qabala Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Referee: A. Ahmadov
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Araz 1-2 Qabala.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Araz, 26% draw, 25% Qabala — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Araz at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Araz0%Draw5%Qabala95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽I. Akinade
35'
Edson Eduardo
⚽M. Mara
36'
46'
🔁E. Cekiciout: M. Ubochioma
M. Mara
47'
48'
⚽I. Amoah
🔁Bruno Francoout: U. Isgandarov
60'
🔁C. Boliout: O. Buludov
69'
72'
🔁I. Akinadeout: K. Rossi
🔁M. Ahmadzadaout: C. Nuriyev
74'
78'
🔁S. Shahniyarovout: N. Monzango
87'
J. Sierra
A. Rzayev
90+2'
M. Kane
90+2'
90+3'
🔁Raphael Utzigout: Bruno Silva
90+4'
E. Camalov
90+4'
M. Ubochioma
A. Fernandez
90+5'

Line-ups

Araz
  • 99T. Ahmadli
  • 2A. Rzayev
  • 8M. Ahmadzada
  • 27B. Letic
  • 6P. Andrade
  • 11M. Mara
  • 36M. Kane
  • 12Bruno Franco
  • 10C. Boli
  • 5L. Dumancic
  • 23A. Fernandez
Substitutes
  • 1A. Augusto
  • 14U. Isgandarov
  • 7R. Muradov
  • 26O. Buludov
  • 29C. Nuriyev
  • 13Q. Alizada
  • 22R. Hasanov
  • 19A. Sudi
Coach: Cavid Huseynov
Qabala
  • 1S. Agayev
  • 4E. Camalov
  • 10S. Shahniyarov
  • 27E. Ahmadov
  • 24I. Akinade
  • 23Raphael Utzig
  • 8E. Cekici
  • 6J. Sierra
  • 12K. Mabea
  • 16I. Amoah
  • 3Edson Eduardo
Substitutes
  • 94H. Hushanov
  • 11A. Mammadov
  • 22F. Iskandarov
  • 13N. Aliyev
  • 74S. Damadayev
  • 66N. Rashidov
  • 21Z. Shakarkhanov
  • 9K. Rossi
  • 7Bruno Silva
Coach: Jeton Bekjiri

Form going into Araz vs Qabala

Araz

Premyer Liqa

  • L1-2away to Sumqayıt16 October 2026
  • L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026

Qabala

Premyer Liqa

  • L0-4Sabah FA17 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Araz110471123-124
10Qabala11227618-128

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Araz vs Qabala

  • 25 April 2026Qabala 1–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
  • 30 November 2025Qabala 2–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
  • 30 August 2025Araz 2–1 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 19 May 2024Qabala 2–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
  • 16 March 2024Araz 1–1 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 9 February 2024Qabala 2–0 ArazCup

The result against the call

Qabala won 2–1 at Araz. The model had leaned towards a win for Araz at 49% and given a win for Qabala 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: I. Akinade 8' for Qabala, M. Mara 36' for Araz, I. Amoah 48' for Qabala.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Araz a 52.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 46.4% after a win, 54.8% after a draw, 64.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.2%, 11.6 points higher than before the match.

For Qabala the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 61.9% going in: 50.7% after a win, 61.2% after a draw, 68.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 11.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Araz v Qabala has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Araz's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Araz win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Qabala win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.