Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Polonia Warszawa 1-1 Miedz Legnica.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Polonia Warszawa, 28% draw, 29% Miedz Legnica — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Polonia Warszawa at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1H. Ravas
- 22P. Olszewski
- 16J. Budnicki
- 2M. Kuusk
- 97P. Janasik
- 6D. Gnaase
- 36T. Makowski
- 24E. Terpilowski
- 23S. Skrabb
- 94J. Paszkowski
- 63G. Barkovskiy
- 71M. Jelen
- 7D. Vega
- 9K. Kostorz
- 15A. Golos
- 20D. Olafsson
- 21A. Kapusta
- 26K. Tabara
- 27S. Kowalczyk
- 99I. Durmus
- 12D. Sydorenko
- 52O. Olewinski
- 5A. Kovacevic
- 99K. Noiszewski
- 3M. Grudzinski
- 18A. Cordoba
- 80Z. Petrovic
- 70W. Hajda
- 7M. Bochnak
- 9K. Fucak
- 10J. Letniowski
- 1I. Lucic
- 8J. Serafin
- 11G. Norlin
- 21D. Stanclik
- 30M. Jovicic
- 44I. Korczakowski
- 49O. Szymoniak
- 78M. Mazur
- 95M. Mansfeld
Form going into Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga
- W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
Miedz Legnica
I Liga
- W3-0Stal Mielec17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Warszawa | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
- 21 March 2026Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 14 September 2025Miedz Legnica 1–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 2 March 2025Miedz Legnica 2–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 17 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 23 February 2024Miedz Legnica 2–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 14 August 2023Polonia Warszawa 3–4 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
The result against the call
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Polonia Warszawa at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: G. Barkovskiy 3' for Polonia Warszawa, A. Cordoba 16' for Miedz Legnica.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Polonia Warszawa a 27.5% chance to finish in the top two: 32.1% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.9%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
For Miedz Legnica the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 13.8% going in: 18.8% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 13.6%.
Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.