Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 Al-Gharafa.
Before kick-off the model made it 81% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 13% draw, 6% Al-Gharafa — fair odds of 1.23, 7.69 and 16.67.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 81%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 3IbañezD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 7TrincãoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 20Matheus GonçalvesM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 62Abdullah AbdoG
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 11Meshal Al MutairiF
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 4Makaya Ibrahima DiabyM
- 46Rayane HamidouD
- 24A. KintehD
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 25Faisal Ibrahim Ahmed FallatahM
- 31A. KoneG
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
- 4S. SanoD
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 26Rayyan Al AliD
- 96A. OunasM
- 13F. SassiM
- 29F. DíazM
- 7F. ComanM
- 90A. HassanF
- 34M. GamalG
- 16Jamil FriarkhM
- 8Y. BrahimiF
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 97A. Nasar MohamedF
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 19Yousef Saaed AhmedF
- 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa
Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-1away to Al-Wasl FC12 October 2026
- D1-1Pakhtakor14 September 2026
Al-Gharafa
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-2Esteghlal FC12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 16 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa
- 20 October 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al-GharafaAFC Champions League Elite
- 17 February 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–2 Al-GharafaAFC Champions League Elite
- 13 March 2018Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-GharafaAFC Champions League
- 5 March 2018Al-Gharafa 1–1 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League
The result against the call
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Gharafa 2–1. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 81%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Ivan Toney 4' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Florinel Coman 53' for Al-Gharafa, Matheus Gonçalves Martins 86' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Sent off: Seydou Sano (Al-Gharafa) 77'. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.47.
How the call on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 85% / 10% / 5% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 81% / 13% / 6%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win81%▼ −4
- Draw13%▲ +3
- Al-Gharafa win6%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.