Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Sadd AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Sadd.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 15% draw, 13% Al Sadd — fair odds of 1.39, 6.67 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Sadd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 35A. Al SiyahiD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 70S. SuleimanM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 22C. Bonsu BaahF
- 27E. HoussaM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 30M. SangareF
- 50Meshari SunyurG
- 22Meshaal BarshamG
- 2Pedro MiguelD
- 5Tarek SalmanD
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD
- 6Paulo OtávioD
- 4M. CamaraM
- 33ClaudinhoM
- 23Hashim AliM
- 9Roberto FirminoM
- 30Akram AfifM
- 12Y. AbdurisagF
- 7Mohammed WaadM
- 14Mostafa MeshaalM
- 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
- 8GuilhermeM
- 11GiovaniF
- 3Y. El HannachD
- 21A. BounacerD
- 20Y. AtalD
- 1Saad Al SheebG
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Sadd
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1away to Pakhtakor12 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Al Sadd
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-2Al-Hilal13 October 2026
- L0-3away to Esteghlal FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Sadd
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Quiñones41
Al Sadd
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Sadd drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% and given a draw 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Akram Afif 74' for Al Sadd, Julián Quiñones 84' for Al-Qadisiyah FC. On expected goals it finished 0.84–1.44.
How the call on Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Sadd has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 77% / 13% / 10% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 72% / 15% / 13%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win72%▼ −5
- Draw15%▲ +2
- Al Sadd win13%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.