AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: AEK Larnaca 2-0 Omonia Nicosia.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% AEK Larnaca, 30% draw, 36% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Omonia Nicosia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
Line-ups
- 92A. PaleariG
- 4Enric SaboritD
- 20J. RepasM
- 21MiramónD
- 15H. MiličevićM
- 7Gus LedesM
- 14A. LayouniF
- 23S. KöhlerM
- 22G. EkpoloD
- 10Y. ChacónF
- 11R. BajićF
- 99D. DemetriouG
- 44Z. AdoniD
- 37David GerasimouM
- 2P. IoannouD
- 25C. KyriakouM
- 28K. MrabtiM
- 29G. NaoumM
- 5Brian OlivánD
- 6I. PankovM
- 74P. AndreouM
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 11EwandroM
- 99L. DionyF
- 93J. DuverneD
- 14M. MarićM
- 7J. MontnorF
- 77L. NégoD
- 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 22M. TankovicF
- 40FabianoG
- 44G. ViktorosD
- 17F. TănaseM
- 27S. SimičD
- 28M. OdubajoD
- 85A. NeophytouF
- 78Pantelis MichailG
- 21M. MayambelaF
- 90C. KonstantinidisD
- 1T. KaminskiG
Form going into AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
1. Division
- D1-1away to Aris18 October 2026
- W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026
Omonia Nicosia
1. Division
- D2-2Olympiakos19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Omonia Nicosia | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
- 10 May 2026Omonia Nicosia 1–1 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 14 April 2026AEK Larnaca 0–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 14 January 2026Omonia Nicosia 2–1 AEK LarnacaCup
- 15 December 2025AEK Larnaca 1–1 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 17 September 2025Omonia Nicosia 1–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 7 May 2025AEK Larnaca 2–1 Omonia NicosiaCup
Leading scorers: AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
GoalsAssists
- Đ. Ivanović21
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony30
- Ľ. Šatka21
- L. Brouwers20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AEK Larnaca beat Omonia Nicosia 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Omonia Nicosia at 36% and given a win for AEK Larnaca 34%. The goals: Riad Bajić 49' for AEK Larnaca, Amor Layouni 69' for AEK Larnaca.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AEK Larnaca a 28.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 37.3% after a win, 26.2% after a draw, 18.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.3%, 9.2 points higher than before the match.
For Omonia Nicosia the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 51.7% going in: 62.4% after a win, 52.1% after a draw, 41.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.5%, 10.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AEK Larnaca v Omonia Nicosia has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 30% / 36%: the biggest move is Omonia Nicosia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- AEK Larnaca win34%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Omonia Nicosia win36%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.