Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 19% draw, 14% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 3IbañezD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 7TrincãoF
- 17I. ToneyF
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 62Abdullah AbdoG
- 87Ramez Al AttarM
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 11Meshal Al MutairiF
- 4Makaya Ibrahima DiabyM
- 20Matheus GonçalvesF
- 46Rayane HamidouD
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 29Mohammed YousefD
- 96Marwan Al HaidariG
- 27Fawaz Al SaqourD
- 13Ahmad AsiriD
- 17Abdullah Al HafithD
- 3Mohammed Al KhabraniD
- 8Omar MascarellM
- 12Majed KanabahM
- 5Pedro RebochoM
- 99M. BarrowM
- 9M. BenegasF
- 7J. KingF
- 4K. KouyatéD
- 1M. Abbas IbrahimG
- 15Mansour HamziF
- 19Miguel CrespoM
- 14Ali Al ShaafiD
- 90Thamer Al KhaibriF
- 11Saleh Al AmriF
- 28Hussain Al EisaF
- 16Bader MunshiM
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League
- W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
Al Khaleej Saihat
Pro League
- W3-2away to Al-Fateh18 October 2026
- W2-0Al-Fayha15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat
- 20 May 2026Al Khaleej Saihat 1–4 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 20 January 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 7 March 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 18 October 2024Al Khaleej Saihat 0–3 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 29 December 2023Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 17 August 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 1–3 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Al Khaleej Saihat
GoalsAssists
- J. King50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4–1. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ivan Toney 11' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Artem Bondarenko 57' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Francisco Trincão 61' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Thamer Al-Khaibri 87' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Ivan Toney (penalty) 90+6' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Sent off: Mateo Benegas (Al Khaleej Saihat) 69'. On expected goals it finished 3.90–0.51.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Ahli Jeddah a 68.7% chance to finish in the top four: 71.6% after a win, 64.0% after a draw, 60.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.6%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
For Al Khaleej Saihat the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.2% going in: 4.9% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.0%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 70% / 18% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 67% / 19% / 14%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win67%▼ −3
- Draw19%▲ +1
- Al Khaleej Saihat win14%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.