23 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Zira vs Sumqayıt Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Zira Stadium, Zira
Referee: T. Qurbanov
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Zira 3-2 Sumqayıt.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Zira, 26% draw, 24% Sumqayıt — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zira at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zira97%Draw3%Sumqayıt0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ruan Renato (pen)
8'
E. Alicanov
11'
⚽Guima
21'
39'
⚽N. Ahmadzada
47'
•R. Vasquez
56'
⚽Keffel
🔁A. Seydiyevout: D. Chrismael
72'
🔁E. Aydinout: I. Djibrilla
72'
🔁E. Alicanovout: H. Hacyly
72'
72'
🔁E. Mustafaevout: R. Kehat
A. Guseynov
82'
⚽D. Volkovi
83'
🔁A. Guseynovout: M. Mchakhchekh
86'
90+4'
E. Suliman
90+5'
🔁C. Badoloout: H. Haqverdi

Line-ups

Zira
  • 13A. Bayramov
  • 32Q. Aliyev
  • 2A. Seydiyev
  • 14E. Alicanov
  • 11A. Guseynov
  • 4Ruan Renato
  • 9D. Volkovi
  • 21Guima
  • 5A. Mutsinzi
  • 3D. Legbo
  • 7E. Aydin
Substitutes
  • 72H. Quliyev
  • 41A. Nazirov
  • 6H. Hacyly
  • 48R. Muradov
  • 57Y. Haciyev
  • 43A. Suleymanzade
  • 20I. Djibrilla
  • 33M. Mchakhchekh
  • 23D. Smith
Coach: Rashad Sadiqov
Sumqayıt
  • 16M. Johansson
  • 4E. Suliman
  • 5Renan Santana
  • 10R. Vasquez
  • 11M. Bangre
  • 17N. Ahmadzada
  • 21Tiago Almeida
  • 29E. Mustafaev
  • 42C. Badolo
  • 55Lucas Black
  • 80Keffel
Substitutes
  • 22K. Farzullayev
  • 12A. Arikhov
  • 3H. Haqverdi
  • 20A. Suleymali
  • 75N. Orucov
  • 97V. Pashayev
  • 23R. Ahmadov
  • 37N. Orucali
  • 19R. Kehat
Coach: Filipe Candido

Form going into Zira vs Sumqayıt

Zira

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1away to Kapaz18 October 2026
  • D1-1Şamaxı FK10 October 2026

Sumqayıt

Premyer Liqa

  • W2-1Araz16 October 2026
  • W4-1Qabala10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Zira115421615+119
9Sumqayıt102441314-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zira vs Sumqayıt

  • 17 May 2026Zira 2–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
  • 3 March 2026Zira 2–0 SumqayıtCup
  • 8 February 2026Sumqayıt 2–3 ZiraPremyer Liqa
  • 4 February 2026Sumqayıt 0–0 ZiraCup
  • 25 October 2025Zira 1–0 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
  • 20 April 2025Zira 3–1 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Zira beat Sumqayıt 3–2. The model had made a win for Zira its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ruan Renato (penalty) 8' for Zira, Guima 21' for Zira, N. Ahmadzada 39' for Sumqayıt, Keffel 56' for Sumqayıt, D. Volkovi 83' for Zira.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zira a 32.0% chance to finish in the top four: 36.2% after a win, 30.9% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.2%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Sumqayıt the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.9% going in: 10.9% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zira v Sumqayıt has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Zira's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Zira win50%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Sumqayıt win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.