23 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr Pro League prediction & result

Al Majma’a Sport City, Madimaa
Referee: Abdullah Al-Owaidan, Saudi Arabia
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Nassr.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Al-Faisaly FC, 20% draw, 65% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Nassr at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Abdullah Al-Hamdanassist: Sadio Mané
14'
Awad Aman
24'
Samu Costa
45'
🔁Awad Amanout: Ayman Yahya
49'
⚽Andrei Girotto (OG)
53'
•Cristiano Ronaldo
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Bishiout: Theo Bongonda
61'
🔁Eid Al-Muwalladout: Jaime Seoane
61'
🔁Mohammed Jahfaliout: Abdullah Subayt
61'
⚽Theo Bongondaassist: Mohammed Ali Al Shanqiti
66'
67'
🔁Samu Costaout: Angelo Borges
79'
⚽Angelo Borgesassist: Abdullah Al-Hamdan
🔁Abdullah Al-Mogrenout: Abdulrahman Al Shereaf
80'
81'
🔁Abdullah Al-Hamdanout: Saad Haqawi
81'
🔁Abdullah Al-Khaibariout: Sami Al-Najei
🔁Mohammed Ali Al Shanqitiout: Abdulrahman Al Safari
85'
86'
🔁Sadio Manéout: Salem Al-Najdi

Match stats — Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr

45%Possession55%
12Shots10
2On target4
4Corners6
1.28xG0.62

Goals against chances

Al-Faisaly FC1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Nassr3 from 0.62 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Faisaly FC 3-4-3
  • 1Fernando PachecoG
  • 5Andrei GirottoD
  • 4A. SeckD
  • 70Mohammed JahfaliD
  • 2Yaseen BarnawiM
  • 8FlávioM
  • 6Eid Al MuwalladM
  • 50Mohammed Ali Al ShanqitiM
  • 24Abdulaziz Al BishiF
  • 19Alexandre MendyF
  • 14Abdullah AlmuqrinF
Substitutes
  • 87A. BaD
  • 26Mohammed Al HasawiG
  • 47Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al FahadF
  • 18Abdulrahman Al SafariM
  • 77A. Al ShereafM
  • 10T. BongondaF
  • 11A. EllaF
  • 88Saud HaddadD
  • 20Jaime SeoaneM
Coach: G. Solinas
Al-Nassr 4-2-3-1
  • 24BentoG
  • 12Nawaf BoushalD
  • 5Abdulelah Al AmriD
  • 26Íñigo MartínezD
  • 70Awad AmanD
  • 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
  • 11Samú CostaM
  • 9Abdullah Al HamdanM
  • 79João FélixM
  • 10S. ManéM
  • 7Cristiano RonaldoF
Substitutes
  • 83Salem Al NajdiD
  • 14Sami Al NajiM
  • 6Saad Al NasserD
  • 20ÂngeloF
  • 60Saad HaqawiF
  • 50Majed QasheeshD
  • 23Ayman YahyaM
  • 22Abdulhadi Al AlwanG
  • 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
Coach: A. Postecoglou

Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr

Al-Faisaly FC

Pro League

  • D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
  • W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026

Al-Nassr

Pro League

  • W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
  • W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Al-Faisaly FC122461324-1110
3Al-Nassr119112811+1728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr

  • 15 January 2022Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
  • 19 August 2021Al-Faisaly FC 2–1 Al-NassrPro League
  • 5 May 2021Al-Nassr 4–3 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
  • 4 April 2021Al-Nassr 0–1 Al-Faisaly FCKing's Cup
  • 31 December 2020Al-Faisaly FC 2–3 Al-NassrPro League
  • 7 March 2020Al-Faisaly FC 3–2 Al-NassrPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr

Al-Faisaly FC

GoalsAssists

  • Alexandre Mendy51

Al-Nassr

GoalsAssists

  • Cristiano Ronaldo80
  • Ângelo53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Nassr won 3–1 at Al-Faisaly FC. The model had made a win for Al-Nassr its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Abdullah Al-Hamdan 4' for Al-Nassr, Andrei Girotto (own goal) 49' for Al-Nassr, Theo Bongonda 66' for Al-Faisaly FC, Angelo Borges 79' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 1.28–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Faisaly FC a 24.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.7% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 25.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Nassr the question was the chance to win the league, 21.2% going in: 22.6% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 16.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.6%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.