Aston Villa vs Viking UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 3-1 Viking.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Aston Villa, 23% draw, 25% Viking — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Viking
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 35João GomesD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 5T. MingsD
- 7J. McGinnM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 47Alysson EdwardM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 19I. MbayeM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 40M. BizotG
- 26L. BogardeM
- 2M. CashD
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 53George HemmingsM
- 8B. KamaraM
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 1A. ØstbøG
- 2H. HaugenD
- 6G. StensnessD
- 27J. DalandD
- 5H. HeggheimD
- 29T. MoiM
- 8J. BellM
- 7K. AskildsenM
- 20P. ChristiansenF
- 22E. BotheimF
- 10Z. TripićF
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 17E. BasseyD
- 30Ľ. BelkoG
- 16H. BjørdalM
- 19A. CosicF
- 28K. HaugenD
- 3V. VevatneD
- 23N. FuglestadF
- 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
Form going into Aston Villa vs Viking
Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
- W6-0Fenerbahçe14 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
Viking
UEFA Champions League
- D3-3Bayern München13 October 2026
- L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Viking
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Viking
GoalsAssists
- Z. Tripić43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aston Villa beat Viking 3–1. The model had made a win for Aston Villa its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ross Barkley 23' for Aston Villa, Emiliano Buendía (penalty) 37' for Aston Villa, Henrik Heggheim (own goal) 62' for Aston Villa, Peter Christiansen 84' for Viking. On expected goals it finished 2.78–0.80.
How the call on Aston Villa v Viking has moved
First published on 7 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 52% / 23% / 25%: the biggest move is Aston Villa's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Aston Villa win52%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Viking win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.