Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Arabi SC 0-0 Al-Rayyan SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Al-Arabi SC, 26% draw, 47% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Rayyan SC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Jasem Al HailG
- 22K. BauobidaD
- 5SimoD
- 19Gueye LayeD
- 3Mohammed Al NaimiD
- 6O. TannaneM
- 8Ahmed FathiM
- 17J. VeretoutM
- 80I. LihadjiM
- 7Pablo SarabiaF
- 14M. OlungaF
- 33Q. El HarounG
- 24Yonis Yusuf AbdurisagqM
- 15Faisal Al ObaidliM
- 9Mohamed GoudaF
- 11Lotfi MadjerF
- 20A. MahajnaD
- 44Hassan MohamadM
- 4A. Al HussainD
- 98J. MonegalM
- 57Mahmud AbunadaG
- 8Jassem GaberD
- 13André AmaroD
- 5David GarcíaD
- 33D. DiakiteD
- 4J. De SartM
- 11Gabriel PereiraM
- 40GregoreM
- 22Ahmed Al GanehiM
- 10Róger GuedesM
- 30Ahmed Alaa EldinF
- 2Abdalla YousifD
- 6Abdulaziz HatemM
- 9A. MitrovićF
- 17Youssef AymanD
- 35Sami MazenG
- 23S. BeldiG
- 21Ibrahim Mohammed Al-HassanM
- 16Jassem Al SharshaniM
- 12Ahmed Al MinhaliD
Form going into Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah24 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Shahaniya16 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026
Al-Rayyan SC
Stars League
- W6-1away to Al-Sailiya23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Qatar SC9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 14 |
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
- 27 April 2026Al-Rayyan SC 4–0 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 28 December 2025Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 27 February 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 26 September 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 7 September 2024Al-Rayyan SC 3–0 Al-Arabi SCQSL Cup
- 1 March 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–3 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Arabi SC and Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia60
- O. Tannane33
Al-Rayyan SC
GoalsAssists
- Róger Guedes62
- Ahmed Alaa Eldin50
- Gabriel Pereira33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Arabi SC and Al-Rayyan SC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Rayyan SC at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Arabi SC a 59.6% chance to finish in the top four: 82.2% after a win, 58.6% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.6%, 1 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Rayyan SC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 51.9% going in: 65.7% after a win, 44.4% after a draw, 32.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.4%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Arabi SC v Al-Rayyan SC has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 27% / 26% / 47%: the biggest move is Al-Rayyan SC's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Al-Arabi SC win27%▼ −4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Al-Rayyan SC win47%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.