Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers A-League prediction & result
Final score: Macarthur FC 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Macarthur FC, 25% draw, 35% Western Sydney Wanderers — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Macarthur FC at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Line-ups
- 1Alex RobinsonG
- 25Callum TalbotD
- 3Nara TatsukiD
- 5Jonathan AspropotamitisD
- 21Nathan PaullD
- 8Luke VickeryM
- 18Dylan RoseM
- 22Liam RoseM
- 7Connor PainM
- 24Dean BosnjakF
- 16Apostolos StamatelopoulosF
- 9Ben GibsonF
- 10Ryan FraserF
- 99Musa TouréF
- 29Zane HelwehF
- 30Joshua LakkisG
- 31Sebastian KrslovicD
- 17Oliver RandazzoM
- 20Lawrence ThomasG
- 36Panashe MadanhaD
- 33Germán FerreyraD
- 24Nathan BarrieD
- 17Jarrod CarluccioD
- 8Dylan SciclunaM
- 32Angus ThurgateM
- 14Nicolas MilanovićM
- 10Miguel Di PizioM
- 21Liam GillionM
- 26Brandon BorrelloF
- 7Aydan HammondF
- 11Atiya WaragaF
- 9Hiroshi IbusukiF
- 35Marcus SavicD
- 23Jordan HolmesG
- 6Steven UgarkovićM
- 27Jai RoseM
Form going into Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Macarthur FC
A-League
- D1-1away to Newcastle Jets24 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
Western Sydney Wanderers
A-League
- W5-2Auckland FC24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sydney FC16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
- 28 February 2026Macarthur FC 0–4 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 1 January 2026Western Sydney Wanderers 0–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 1 November 2025Macarthur FC 1–1 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 3 May 2025Macarthur FC 1–3 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 16 February 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 1 January 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 2–3 Macarthur FCA-League
Leading scorers: Macarthur FC and Western Sydney Wanderers
Macarthur FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Toure11
Western Sydney Wanderers
GoalsAssists
- N. Milanovic20
- A. Waraga10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Western Sydney Wanderers won 1–0 at Macarthur FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Macarthur FC at 40% and given a win for Western Sydney Wanderers 35%. The goal: G. Ferreyra 10' for Western Sydney Wanderers.
How the call on Macarthur FC v Western Sydney Wanderers has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Macarthur FC's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Macarthur FC win40%▼ −5
- Draw25%=
- Western Sydney Wanderers win35%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.