30 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC Stars League prediction & result

Qatar Sports Club Stadium, Doha
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Al-Gharafa 2-0 Qatar SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al-Gharafa, 26% draw, 36% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Gharafa at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Gharafa99%Draw1%Qatar SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ismaël Bennacer
11'
Fabricio Díaz
30'
45+3'
Eisa Palangi
🔁Adam Ounasout: Amro Surag
45'
🔁Ismaël Bennacerout: Hyun-Soo Jang
58'
🔁Florinel Comanout: Frank Magri
58'
Seydou Sano
67'
69'
🔁Said Brahmiout: Yaseen Lafrid
⚽Yacine Brahimiassist: Dame Traore
74'
77'
🔁Yohan Boliout: Ataa Jaber
86'
🔁Ali Saoudiout: Albert Luque
⚽Yacine Brahimiassist: Amro Surag
88'
🔁Dame Traoreout: Amjed Nasar Mohamed
90+2'

Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC

52%Possession48%
16Shots16
6On target8
7Corners4
1.33xG1.56

Goals against chances

Al-Gharafa2 from 1.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Qatar SC0 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Khalifa AbabacarG
  • 18Ayoub Al OuiD
  • 4S. SanoD
  • 6Dame TraoréD
  • 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
  • 29F. DíazM
  • 13F. SassiM
  • 96A. OunasM
  • 10I. BennacerM
  • 8Y. BrahimiM
  • 7F. ComanF
Substitutes
  • 26Rayyan Al AliD
  • 9F. MagriF
  • 97A. Nasar MohamedF
  • 34M. GamalG
  • 19Yousef Saaed AhmedF
  • 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
  • 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
  • 31A. KoneG
  • 20Jang Hyun-SooD
Coach: Pedro Martins
Qatar SC 4-4-2
  • 17A. N. MahmoudG
  • 2Nasir BakshD
  • 40S. F. DioufD
  • 4A. SaoudiD
  • 20Eisa PalangiD
  • 14Said BrahmiM
  • 6Pau PrimM
  • 24N. MasonM
  • 7F. SelemaniM
  • 11Y. BoliF
  • 9João PedroF
Substitutes
  • 12Ibrahim MasoudF
  • 28A. AddaiF
  • 74S. Al AbbasiG
  • 66A. Q. Ayman Mohamed A.D
  • 96Ataa JaberM
  • 42Yaseen LafridD
  • 18Mohamed MushrinnM
  • 44A. HanfyD
  • 22A. Ramis LuqueF
Coach: Tintín Márquez

Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC

Al-Gharafa

Stars League

  • D2-2Al Ahli Doha22 October 2026
  • D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026

Qatar SC

Stars League

  • W3-2away to Al Shamal23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Al-Sailiya17 October 2026
  • L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al-Gharafa92341115-49
11Qatar SC91351121-106

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC

  • 12 March 2026Qatar SC 2–0 Al-GharafaStars League
  • 19 January 2026Qatar SC 3–2 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
  • 7 November 2025Al-Gharafa 2–1 Qatar SCStars League
  • 22 February 2025Al-Gharafa 4–2 Qatar SCStars League
  • 22 September 2024Qatar SC 1–3 Al-GharafaStars League
  • 19 May 2024Qatar SC 2–2 Al-GharafaEmir Cup

Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC

Al-Gharafa

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Brahimi51

Qatar SC

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Gharafa beat Qatar SC 2–0. The model had made a win for Al-Gharafa its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yacine Brahimi 74' for Al-Gharafa, Yacine Brahimi 88' for Al-Gharafa. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Gharafa a 20.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.3% after a win, 18.9% after a draw, 39.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.3%, 17 points lower than before the match.

For Qatar SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 27.8% going in: 9.0% after a win, 25.9% after a draw, 44.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.6%, 16.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Gharafa v Qatar SC has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Al-Gharafa's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al-Gharafa win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Qatar SC win36%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.