30 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Al Sadd vs Al Shamal Stars League prediction & result

Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Al Sadd 4-1 Al Shamal.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Al Sadd, 20% draw, 23% Al Shamal — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Sadd at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Sadd99%Draw1%Al Shamal0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaassist: Akram Afif
11'
35'
Mowafak Awad
44'
•Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
45'
Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
45'
Baghdad Bounedjah
45+7'
⚽Riyad Mahrez (pen)
⚽Mohamed Camaraassist: Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel
62'
64'
🔁Mowafak Awadout: Musab Khoder
64'
🔁Tiago Silvaout: Michel Termanini
🔁Paulo Otávioout: Mohamed Waad
66'
⚽Akram Afifassist: Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel
68'
73'
🔁Baghdad Bounedjahout: Wesley Saïd
73'
🔁Ali Assadallaout: Omar Ali
77'
🔁Riyad Mahrezout: Federico Bais
🔁Yusuf Abdurisagout: Hassan Al-Haydos
79'
⚽Roberto Firminoassist: Akram Afif
80'
🔁Roberto Firminoout: Mohammed Muntari
87'
🔁Boualem Khoukhiout: Abdessamed Bounacer
87'
🔁Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silvaout: Mostafa Mashaal
87'
Mostafa Mashaal
90+3'

Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al Shamal

53%Possession47%
12Shots15
9On target6
4Corners2
2.44xG1.97

Goals against chances

Al Sadd4 from 2.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al Shamal1 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Sadd 4-2-3-1
  • 22Meshaal BarshamG
  • 3Y. El HannachD
  • 2Pedro MiguelD
  • 16Boualem KhoukhiD
  • 6Paulo OtávioD
  • 4M. CamaraM
  • 33ClaudinhoM
  • 11GiovaniM
  • 9Roberto FirminoM
  • 30Akram AfifM
  • 12Y. AbdurisagF
Substitutes
  • 21A. BounacerD
  • 10Hassan Al HaydosF
  • 1Saad Al SheebG
  • 13Abdullah Al YazidiF
  • 23Hashim AliF
  • 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
  • 64Moaz ElwadiaD
  • 7Mohammed WaadM
  • 17Mohamed Al ManaiM
Coach: R. Lucescu
Al Shamal 4-2-3-1
  • 95B. SeckG
  • 2Moufak AwadD
  • 37Ahmed SuhailD
  • 4Pablo MaríD
  • 3Abdelkarim HassanD
  • 70Tiago SilvaM
  • 28N. BenaïssaM
  • 26R. MahrezM
  • 8Ali AsadM
  • 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
  • 11B. BounedjahF
Substitutes
  • 47Fahad WaadD
  • 67Saoud Al KhaterG
  • 78Ahmad Al SaeedF
  • 14Omar AliF
  • 16F. BaisD
  • 6Musab KhoderD
  • 45Abdullah El RadyG
  • 27Ahmed SayyarM
  • 22W. SaïdF
Coach: David Prats

Form going into Al Sadd vs Al Shamal

Al Sadd

Stars League

  • W4-0away to Al Shahaniya22 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Duhail SC18 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026

Al Shamal

Stars League

  • L2-3Qatar SC23 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Lusail City17 October 2026
  • L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al Sadd96033418+1618
6Al Shamal93331817+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al Shamal

  • 1 May 2026Al Shamal 4–6 Al SaddEmir Cup
  • 27 April 2026Al Sadd 3–2 Al ShamalStars League
  • 29 December 2025Al Shamal 0–3 Al SaddStars League
  • 12 January 2025Al Sadd 1–0 Al ShamalStars League
  • 10 August 2024Al Shamal 2–1 Al SaddStars League
  • 24 April 2024Al Shamal 0–4 Al SaddStars League

Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al Shamal

Al Sadd

GoalsAssists

  • Akram Afif86
  • Roberto Firmino84
  • Giovani33

Al Shamal

GoalsAssists

  • A. Zouhzouh61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Sadd beat Al Shamal 4–1. The model had made a win for Al Sadd its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva 11' for Al Sadd, Riyad Mahrez (penalty) 45+7' for Al Shamal, Mohamed Camara 62' for Al Sadd, Akram Afif 68' for Al Sadd, Roberto Firmino 80' for Al Sadd. Sent off: Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane (Al Shamal) 45'. On expected goals it finished 2.44–1.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Sadd a 21.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 28.8% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.8%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

For Al Shamal the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.0% going in: 18.6% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 1.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.7%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Stars League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.