15 October 2026, 13:40 UTC

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood Pro League prediction & result

Al Majma’a Sport City, Madimaa
Referee: Sultan Sanat Alharbi
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Al-Faisaly FC 3-2 Al Kholood.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Al-Faisaly FC, 27% draw, 36% Al Kholood — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Faisaly FC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Faisaly FC96%Draw4%Al Kholood0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alexandre Mendy
7'
Andrei Girotto
17'
19'
⚽Shaquille Pinas
45'
⚽Julien Dominguesassist: Ramzi Solan
⚽Alexandre Mendyassist: Flávio
45+4'
🔁Theo Bongondaout: Christian Bassogog
61'
🔁Jaime Seoaneout: Abdullah Al-Mogren
61'
64'
🔁Abdulrahman Al-Dosariout: Antoine Loic Essomba Bikoula
64'
🔁Yaseen Al-Zubaidiout: Mohammed Sawaan
66'
•Coba Gomes da Costa
70'
⚽Julien Domingues (pen)
🔁Eid Al-Muwalladout: Abdullah Subayt
76'
84'
Ramzi Solan
⚽Alexandre Mendyassist: Abdullah Al-Mogren
85'
90'
🔁Ramzi Solanout: Abdulrahman Obaid Al-Obaid
🔁Mohammed Ali Al Shanqitiout: Saud Thamer Haddad
90+3'
🔁Alexandre Mendyout: Khalid Al Harbi
90+3'

Match stats — Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood

49%Possession51%
16Shots18
6On target4
4Corners2
1.87xG2.8

Goals against chances

Al-Faisaly FC3 from 1.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al Kholood2 from 2.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Faisaly FC 4-3-3
  • 1Fernando PachecoG
  • 2Yaseen BarnawiD
  • 4A. SeckD
  • 5Andrei GirottoD
  • 50Mohammed Ali Al ShanqitiD
  • 8FlávioM
  • 6Eid Al MuwalladM
  • 20Jaime SeoaneM
  • 10T. BongondaF
  • 19Alexandre MendyF
  • 24Abdulaziz Al BishiF
Substitutes
  • 3Khalid Al HarbiD
  • 26Mohammed Al HasawiG
  • 47Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al FahadF
  • 14Abdullah AlmuqrinF
  • 77A. Al ShereafM
  • 88Saud HaddadD
  • 70Mohammed JahfaliD
  • 13C. BassogogF
  • 87A. BaD
Coach: G. Solinas
Al Kholood 4-4-2
  • 48Muhannad Al YahyaG
  • 15Ramzi SolanD
  • 8S. CisséD
  • 25Mansour CamaraD
  • 38S. PinasD
  • 26Yaseen Al ZubaidiM
  • 39Abdulrahman Al DosariM
  • 6J. BuckleyM
  • 11CobaM
  • 10Iker KortajarenaF
  • 22J. DominguesF
Substitutes
  • 24O. AbdulghaniD
  • 27Abdullah Al AjyanF
  • 47Abdulrahman Al ObaidD
  • 7Sultan Al ShehriD
  • 67Mohammed Al RashidiM
  • 70Muhammad SawanM
  • 30Mohammed Mazyad AlshammariG
  • 41Ibrahem BarabaaM
  • 77A. EssombaF
Coach: D. Buckingham

Form going into Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood

Al-Faisaly FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Al-Ittihad11 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Al-Ettifaq8 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Hazm5 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC30 August 2026

Al Kholood

Pro League

  • L0-5Al-Qadisiyah FC9 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Faisaly FC did not win any of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Al-Faisaly FC122461324-1110
11Al Kholood113351726-912

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood

  • 29 March 2024Al-Faisaly FC 0–3 Al KholoodDivision 1
  • 8 November 2023Al Kholood 1–0 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1
  • 12 March 2023Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al KholoodDivision 1
  • 18 October 2022Al Kholood 0–1 Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1

Leading scorers: Al-Faisaly FC and Al Kholood

Al-Faisaly FC

GoalsAssists

  • Alexandre Mendy51

Al Kholood

GoalsAssists

  • J. Domingues63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Faisaly FC beat Al Kholood 3–2. The model had made a win for Al-Faisaly FC its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alexandre Mendy 7' for Al-Faisaly FC, Shaquille Pinas 19' for Al Kholood, Julien Domingues 45' for Al Kholood, Alexandre Mendy 45+4' for Al-Faisaly FC, Alexandre Mendy 85' for Al-Faisaly FC. On expected goals it finished 1.87–2.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Faisaly FC a 32.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.2% after a win, 34.1% after a draw, 39.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.2%, 7.2 points lower than before the match.

For Al Kholood the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.3% going in: 4.4% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Faisaly FC v Al Kholood has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Al-Faisaly FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al-Faisaly FC win37%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Al Kholood win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.