15 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Pro League prediction & result

Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Ar Rass
Referee: Mohammed Abdullah Nasser Al Shhrani
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Fateh.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al-Hazm, 28% draw, 28% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hazm at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Hazm4%Draw93%Al-Fateh3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sofiane Bendebka (pen)
17'
23'
Abdulelah Al Khaibari
27'
⚽Wilfried Kangaassist: Mourad Batna
Ahmed Al-Shamrani
43'
⚽Abdulaziz Al-Dweheassist: Amir Saâyoud
49'
57'
🔁Zaydou Youssoufout: Mihai Lixandru
57'
🔁Sattam Tumbuktiout: Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari
🔁Ahmed Al-Shamraniout: Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
66'
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Harbiout: Mohammed Eissa Saleh Al-Jamaan Al-Yami
75'
76'
Kennedy Boateng
80'
🔁Abdul Rahman Al Khaibariout: Fahad Al Zubaidi
80'
🔁Abdulelah Al Khaibariout: Faisal Abdulwahed
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Dweheout: Aboubacar·Diakite
85'
🔁Sofiane Bendebkaout: Mory Konate
85'
🔁Amir Saâyoudout: Mohammed Al Hamdani
85'
88'
⚽Faisal Abdulwahedassist: Mourad Batna
90+2'
🔁Lukáš Haraslínout: Robin Kelder
90+5'
⚽Mourad Batna

Match stats — Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh

43%Possession57%
12Shots15
5On target6
3Corners10
2.37xG2.34

Goals against chances

Al-Hazm2 from 2.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Fateh3 from 2.34 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hazm 3-4-3
  • 36J. StaněkG
  • 4Sultan TankerD
  • 17Bonheur MugishaD
  • 34Abdulrahman Al-DakheelD
  • 82Abdulaziz Al-HarbiM
  • 24A. BahM
  • 28S. BendebkaM
  • 27Ahmed Al NakhliM
  • 22Abdul Aziz Sulaiman Al DhuwayhiF
  • 10A. SayoudF
  • 70Ahmed Al ShamraniF
Substitutes
  • 23Ibrahim ZaidG
  • 13Abdullah Al ShanqitiD
  • 77M. Al HamdaniF
  • 11Waleed Al ShanqitiF
  • 5Mohammed IssaD
  • 95Jaser AteeqD
  • 3A. Ben HmidaD
  • 29Aboubacar DiakiteF
  • 8M. KonatéM
Coach: J. Kadri
Al-Fateh 3-4-3
  • 1A. ŠemperG
  • 3K. BoatengD
  • 17M. SaâdaneD
  • 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
  • 87Sattam Al TumbuktiM
  • 6Ali Al HassanM
  • 28Z. YoussoufM
  • 16Abdulelah Al KhaibariM
  • 11M. BatnaF
  • 9W. KangaF
  • 10L. HaraslínF
Substitutes
  • 94Waleed Al AnziG
  • 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
  • 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
  • 88Othman Al-OthmaM
  • 49Saad Al SharfaF
  • 19R. KelderD
  • 8M. LixandruM
  • 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
  • 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
Coach: J. Sellami

Form going into Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh

Al-Hazm

Pro League

  • D1-1NEOM10 October 2026

Al-Fateh

Pro League

  • L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Al-Hazm122461420-610
16Al-Fateh121381025-156

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh

  • 1 February 2026Al-Fateh 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
  • 20 September 2025Al-Hazm 0–0 Al-FatehPro League
  • 23 May 2024Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-HazmPro League
  • 7 December 2023Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
  • 18 February 2022Al-Hazm 0–1 Al-FatehPro League

The result against the call

Al-Fateh won 3–2 at Al-Hazm. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Hazm at 44% and given a win for Al-Fateh 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sofiane Bendebka (penalty) 17' for Al-Hazm, Wilfried Kanga 27' for Al-Fateh, Abdulaziz Al-Dwehe 49' for Al-Hazm, Faisal Abdulwahed 88' for Al-Fateh, Mourad Batna 90+5' for Al-Fateh. On expected goals it finished 2.37–2.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Hazm a 9.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.5% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.5%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Fateh the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.1% going in: 44.4% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 60.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.4%, 9.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Hazm v Al-Fateh has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Al-Hazm's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Al-Hazm win44%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Al-Fateh win28%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.