15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League prediction & result

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov
Full time2 – 1

Final score: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% AZ Alkmaar, 24% draw, 18% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AZ Alkmaar at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AZ Alkmaar97%Draw3%Hapoel Beer Sheva0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
Pedro Miguel Santos Amador
Seiya Maikuma
45'
⚽Peer Koopmeinersassist: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
49'
52'
Eilel Peretz
Ayoub Oufkir
52'
53'
🔁Idan Nachmiasout: Miguel Vitor
55'
⚽Forson Amankwahassist: zahi ahmed
🔁Seiya Maikumaout: Denso Kasius
61'
🔁Ayoub Oufkirout: Calvin Stengs
61'
62'
🔁Mohamad Abu Rumiout: Javon East
62'
🔁Eilel Peretzout: Niv·Yehoshua
•Bendegúz Kovács
75'
76'
Djibril diop
🔁Bendegúz Kovácsout: Mexx Meerdink
76'
🔁Mees de Witout: Mateo Chávez
76'
⚽Mexx Meerdink (pen)
77'
78'
🔁zahi ahmedout: João Victor
78'
🔁Igor Zlatanovićout: Adrián Ugarriza
Calvin Stengs
78'
Denso Kasius
83'
🔁Ro Zangelo Daalout: Weslley Pinto Batista
86'
90+1'
Adrián Ugarriza

Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

58%Possession42%
15Shots6
7On target4
5Corners1
2.65xG1.07

Goals against chances

AZ Alkmaar2 from 2.65 xGless than the chances were worth
Hapoel Beer Sheva1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 29W. HoedtD
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 24A. OufkirM
  • 17V. ByskovM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 18B. KovacsF
Substitutes
  • 27Wassim bouzianeF
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 54Jerolldino BergraafF
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 30D. KasiusD
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
Coach: L. Echteld
Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-3-3
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 44D. DiopD
  • 15I. NachmiasD
  • 5Pedro AmadorD
  • 17A. ForsonM
  • 25Lucas VenturaM
  • 7E. PeretzM
  • 45M. Abu RumiF
  • 66I. ZlatanovićF
  • 9Z. AhmedF
Substitutes
  • 20J. EastF
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 11A. GanahF
  • 70João VictorF
  • 8M. Kna'anF
  • 4M. VítorD
  • 12I. RotmanD
  • 36Y. ShaniG
  • 90A. UgarrizaF
Coach: R. Kojok

Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

AZ Alkmaar

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva

UEFA Europa League

  • D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14AZ Alkmaar420274+36
33Hapoel Beer Sheva401318-71

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • M. Meerdink30

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AZ Alkmaar beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1. The model had made a win for AZ Alkmaar its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Peer Koopmeiners 49' for AZ Alkmaar, Forson Amankwah 55' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, Mexx Meerdink (penalty) 77' for AZ Alkmaar. On expected goals it finished 2.65–1.07.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.