15 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor 1. Lig prediction & result

Mugla Ataturk Stadyumu
Referee: Ilker Yasin Avci
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Muğlaspor 0-3 Bursaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Muğlaspor, 30% draw, 38% Bursaspor — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bursaspor at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Muğlaspor0%Draw1%Bursaspor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yasin Uzunoglu
35'
35'
Ertuğrul Ersoy
🔁Yasin Uzunogluout: Ibrahim Sissoko
45'
51'
•Kelechi Iheanacho
Jurgen Çelhaka
52'
58'
⚽Kelechi Iheanachoassist: Halil Akbunar
🔁Korede Osundinaout: Poyraz Yildirim
62'
64'
🔁Halil Akbunarout: Hüseyin Maldar
🔁A. Kazmazout: Bilal Ceylan
72'
🔁Jurgen Çelhakaout: Daniel Avramovski
72'
🔁Oguzhan Maturout: Driton Camaj
72'
74'
🔁Eyüp Akcanout: Lewis Baker
74'
🔁Amine Boutrahout: Emir Kaan Gultekin
79'
⚽Kelechi Iheanachoassist: Juergen Elitim
83'
⚽Hüseyin Maldarassist: Kelechi Iheanacho
84'
🔁Rahmetullah Berisbekout: Zeki Yavru
84'
🔁Kelechi Iheanachoout: Baran Başyiğit
Luis Mago
90'

Match stats — Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor

39%Possession61%
10Shots14
4On target4
2Corners1
0.74xG1.8

Goals against chances

Muğlaspor0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Bursaspor3 from 1.80 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Muğlaspor 3-4-3
  • 17E. KılıçarslanG
  • 15O. NahırcıD
  • 44L. Del PinoD
  • 53Alihan KazmazD
  • 28A. EnginM
  • 21J. ÇelhakaM
  • 23A. GünerenM
  • 5O. MaturM
  • 11M. DiarraF
  • 99Y. UzunogluF
  • 13K. OsundinaF
Substitutes
  • 10D. AvramovskiM
  • 3A. BarakD
  • 20B. BulutM
  • 7D. CamajF
  • 22B. CeylanD
  • 91İ. FuratF
  • 35Batıhan HanoğluG
  • 27I. SissokoF
  • 48O. SolM
Coach: Y. Koşukavak
Bursaspor 4-4-2
  • 98K. MatisliG
  • 77R. BerişbekD
  • 4E. ErsoyD
  • 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
  • 93B. GökD
  • 7H. AkbunarM
  • 34E. AkcanM
  • 6J. ElitimM
  • 73A. BoutrahM
  • 10LincolnF
  • 14K. ỊheanachọF
Substitutes
  • 80I. ŠaranićF
  • 57B. YayıkcıD
  • 18Z. YavruD
  • 66H. MaldarD
  • 39A. KıvançG
  • 9E. GültekinF
  • 20B. BaşyiğitF
  • 27T. BayramovD
  • 42L. BakerM
Coach: M. Er

Form going into Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor

Muğlaspor

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük11 October 2026

Bursaspor

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Mardin 196911 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Muğlaspor144641825-718
1Bursaspor1410223012+1832

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor

  • 24 September 2019Muğlaspor 1–3 BursasporTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and Bursaspor

Muğlaspor

GoalsAssists

  • M. Diarra41
  • Y. Uzunoglu41

Bursaspor

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ịheanachọ173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bursaspor won 3–0 at Muğlaspor. The model had made a win for Bursaspor its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kelechi Iheanacho 58' for Bursaspor, Kelechi Iheanacho 79' for Bursaspor, Hüseyin Maldar 83' for Bursaspor. On expected goals it finished 0.74–1.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Muğlaspor a 7.4% chance to finish in the top four: 9.8% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 5.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

For Bursaspor the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 30.2% going in: 34.8% after a win, 29.6% after a draw, 25.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Muğlaspor v Bursaspor has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Muğlaspor's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Muğlaspor win32%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Bursaspor win38%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.