18 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Imisli FK vs Turan Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Tovuz
Referee: N. Ismayilli
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Imisli FK 1-0 Turan.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Imisli FK, 32% draw, 42% Turan — fair odds of 3.85, 3.13 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Turan at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Imisli FK96%Draw4%Turan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
A. Serrano
⚽Diogo Rollo
25'
Ronaldo
44'
46'
🔁D. Tavaresout: A. Jankovic
R. Viegas
60'
62'
R. Miller
🔁S. Faracovout: D. Dos Santos
62'
67'
🔁J. Silvaout: Jo Batista
67'
🔁D. Balauout: F. Haciyev
🔁M. Yawout: J. Hernandez
75'
76'
E. Hackman
84'
🔁S. Beusnardout: R. Olabe
84'
🔁I. Wadjiout: K. Nacafov
🔁Decoout: M. Tahirov
90+1'
90+5'
Jo Batista

Line-ups

Imisli FK
Coach: Farid Namazov
Turan
Coach: Kurban Berdyev

Form going into Imisli FK vs Turan

Imisli FK

Premyer Liqa

  • L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026

Turan

Premyer Liqa

  • W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Imisli FK11326915-611
2Turan11632128+421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Turan

  • 7 April 2026Imisli FK 1–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 1 March 2026Turan 0–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
  • 16 August 2025Imisli FK 0–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
  • 30 March 2018Turan 1–0 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta
  • 4 December 2017Imisli FK 1–1 TuranBirinci Dasta
  • 16 October 2017Turan 1–1 Imisli FKBirinci Dasta

The result against the call

Imisli FK beat Turan 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Turan at 42% and given a win for Imisli FK 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Diogo Rollo 25' for Imisli FK.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Imisli FK a 54.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.9% after a win, 54.2% after a draw, 58.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.9%, 9.1 points lower than before the match.

For Turan the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 43.1% going in: 47.5% after a win, 42.3% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Imisli FK v Turan has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 32% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 32% / 42%: the biggest move is Imisli FK's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Imisli FK win26%▼ −3
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Turan win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.