Aris vs AEK Larnaca 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Aris 1-1 AEK Larnaca.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Aris, 28% draw, 43% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AEK Larnaca at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 20S. YagoD
- 91M. ZadroG
- 22V. NikolićM
- 17M. MatysikD
- 24G. KaluluD
- 29D. GaustadM
- 6A. OpokuM
- 7Anderson CorreiaD
- 8C. CharalampousM
- 11R. EffagheF
- 70C. El AllachiM
- 19Sane mamadouD
- 18B. SzakosD
- 75michalis theodosiouF
- 1Vaná AlvesG
- 99WertonF
- 78Denis OvsyannikovF
- 46G. DimitriouG
- 23Bernardo FolhaM
- 21D. GalyataM
- 4Enric SaboritD
- 92A. PaleariG
- 11R. BajićF
- 22G. EkpoloD
- 23S. KöhlerM
- 14A. LayouniF
- 7Gus LedesM
- 15H. MiličevićM
- 21MiramónD
- 28K. MrabtiM
- 20J. RepasM
- 33N. AndereggenF
- 44Z. AdoniD
- 37David GerasimouM
- 2P. IoannouD
- 9Đ. IvanovićF
- 25C. KyriakouM
- 29G. NaoumM
- 5Brian OlivánD
- 6I. PankovM
Form going into Aris vs AEK Larnaca
Aris
1. Division
- W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026
AEK Larnaca
1. Division
- W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aris | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris vs AEK Larnaca
- 22 May 2026Aris 3–4 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 25 April 2026AEK Larnaca 2–0 Aris1. Division
- 10 January 2026Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 22 September 2025AEK Larnaca 3–2 Aris1. Division
- 27 April 2025Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 29 March 2025AEK Larnaca 1–1 Aris1. Division
Leading scorers: Aris and AEK Larnaca
Aris
GoalsAssists
- R. Effaghe40
AEK Larnaca
GoalsAssists
- Đ. Ivanović21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aris and AEK Larnaca drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AEK Larnaca at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Veljko Nikolić 21' for Aris, Nicolas Andereggen 90+1' for AEK Larnaca.
How the call on Aris v AEK Larnaca has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is AEK Larnaca's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Aris win29%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- AEK Larnaca win43%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.