Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Al-Fateh, 26% draw, 40% Al Shabab — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al Shabab at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. ŠemperG
- 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
- 8M. LixandruD
- 17M. SaâdaneD
- 3K. BoatengD
- 16Abdulelah Al KhaibariD
- 11M. BatnaM
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 6Ali Al HassanM
- 10L. HaraslínM
- 9W. KangaF
- 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
- 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
- 19R. KelderD
- 94Waleed Al AnziG
- 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
- 4Ziyad Al JariD
- 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
- 88Othman Al-OthmaM
- 49Saad Al SharfaF
- 1M. DiawG
- 17Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al ThaniD
- 4T. JedvajD
- 55Ali Al BulayhiD
- 21Dhari Al AnaziD
- 37A. MatuqM
- 8J. BrownhillM
- 29Y. AdliM
- 11Daniel PodenceM
- 9Roger MartínezF
- 49Ricardo MathiasF
- 40Ali Al AsmariM
- 27Abdullah Al HawsawiD
- 12S. Al AnziD
- 33Mohammed Al MahasnehG
- 6Awad Al NashriM
- 24Abdulrahman Al ObudF
- 97Mourad KhodariF
- 5Ali MakkiD
- 35Adel Abbas QasemM
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
Al-Fateh
Pro League
- L2-3Al Khaleej Saihat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
Al Shabab
Pro League
- D2-2Al-Faisaly FC19 October 2026
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 6 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
- 28 April 2026Al Shabab 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 3 January 2026Al-Fateh 2–0 Al ShababPro League
- 1 May 2025Al-Fateh 3–1 Al ShababPro League
- 5 December 2024Al Shabab 2–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 27 May 2024Al Shabab 3–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 15 December 2023Al-Fateh 1–1 Al ShababPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Fateh and Al Shabab
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Al Shabab
GoalsAssists
- Y. Carrasco61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Shabab won 3–1 at Al-Fateh. The model had made a win for Al Shabab its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ricardo Mathias 17' for Al Shabab, Ali Al-Bulaihi 31' for Al Shabab, Lukáš Haraslín 40' for Al-Fateh, Ali Al-Bulaihi 54' for Al Shabab. Sent off: Ziyad Maher Al Jari (Al-Fateh) 75'. On expected goals it finished 1.07–3.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Fateh a 47.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.1% after a win, 47.2% after a draw, 53.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.
For Al Shabab the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.0% going in: 12.3% after a win, 19.1% after a draw, 22.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.3%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Fateh v Al Shabab has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is Al Shabab's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Al-Fateh win34%▼ −3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Al Shabab win40%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.