20 October 2026, 15:10 UTC

Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Pro League prediction & result

Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah
Referee: M. Al Ismail
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Al Taawon 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Al Taawon, 20% draw, 65% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Taawon3%Draw90%Al-Qadisiyah FC7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Muteb Al-Mufarrijout: Nasser Al-Haleel
7'
🔁Abdulrahman Hendiout: Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji
14'
🔁Younes El Bahraouiout: Rakan Al Tulayhi
45'
58'
🔁Abdullah Al-Salemout: Mateo Retegui
58'
🔁Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtaniout: Musab Al-Juwayr
🔁Nasser Al-Haleelout: Awn Al-Saluli
79'
🔁Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibiout: Nedim Bajrami
79'
88'
🔁Mohammed Abu Al-Shamatout: Turki Al-Ammar
90+6'
⚽Tijjani Reijndersassist: Christopher Bonsu Baah

Match stats — Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

29%Possession71%
6Shots22
2On target9
3Corners15
0.45xG2.15

Goals against chances

Al Taawon0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Qadisiyah FC1 from 2.15 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Taawon 5-4-1
  • 1MailsonG
  • 70A. HendiD
  • 40Ibrahim MahnashiD
  • 5Z. BelaïdD
  • 32Muteb Al MufarrijD
  • 88M. PetkovD
  • 7Mohammed Al KuwaykibiM
  • 16Faris Al GhamdiM
  • 18A. El MahdiouiM
  • 47Y. El BahraouiM
  • 9A. Hamed AllahF
Substitutes
  • 6Mohammed Bassam Al HurayjiD
  • 4Nasser Al HaleelD
  • 17Mohammed Al AqelF
  • 30Abdullah Al JadaniG
  • 45Mohammed Al SaediM
  • 93Awn Al SaluliD
  • 23Rakan Al TulayhiM
  • 10N. BajramiM
  • 8P. GuiagonF
Coach: V. Rašović
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-5-2
  • 1K. CasteelsG
  • 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
  • 17G. ÁlvarezD
  • 8N. NándezD
  • 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
  • 14T. ReijndersM
  • 5J. WeiglM
  • 15Mohammed Al QahtaniM
  • 22C. Bonsu BaahM
  • 33J. QuiñonesF
  • 9Abdullah Al SalemF
Substitutes
  • 7Turki Al AmmarM
  • 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
  • 10Musab Al JuwayrM
  • 28Ahmed Al KassarG
  • 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
  • 35A. Al SiyahiM
  • 27E. HoussaM
  • 32M. ReteguiF
  • 42Abdulaziz Tariq Al QarawiD
Coach: Brendan Rodgers

Form going into Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Taawon

Pro League

  • D1-1away to Al Diriyah17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026

Al-Qadisiyah FC

Pro League

  • W2-1Abha16 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Al Taawon12057620-145
2Al-Qadisiyah FC129123212+2028

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

  • 28 February 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al TaawonPro League
  • 1 November 2025Al Taawon 2–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
  • 11 May 2025Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
  • 11 January 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–3 Al TaawonPro League
  • 7 January 2025Al Taawon 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FCKing's Cup
  • 24 September 2023Al Taawon 2–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCKing's Cup

Leading scorers: Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Taawon

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Al-Qadisiyah FC

GoalsAssists

  • T. Reijnders83
  • M. Retegui72
  • J. Quiñones65

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1–0 at Al Taawon. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Tijjani Reijnders 90+6' for Al-Qadisiyah FC. On expected goals it finished 0.45–2.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Taawon a 47.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.2% after a win, 43.8% after a draw, 50.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.0%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Qadisiyah FC the question was the chance to win the league, 18.6% going in: 20.0% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 12.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.0%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 22% / 25% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 15% / 20% / 65%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Al Taawon win15%▼ −7
  2. Draw20%▼ −5
  3. Al-Qadisiyah FC win65%▲ +12

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.